Aschenbrenner的$137亿局：那些Put不是在做空英伟达 Aschenbrenner’s $13.7B Play: Those Nvidia Puts Aren’t a Short
一、这个人是谁
I. Who Is He
Leopold Aschenbrenner，24岁，德裔美国人，前OpenAI超级对齐团队核心研究员，因内部泄露安全担忧文件被解雇后，于2024年创立对冲基金Situational Awareness LP。他于2024年6月发布长达165页的研究报告《情景感知：下一个十年最重要的事》，预言AGI将于2027年前后到来，并将重塑整个经济体系的权力结构。
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a 24-year-old German-American, a former core researcher on OpenAI’s Superalignment team who was dismissed after leaking internal safety concerns. He founded hedge fund Situational Awareness LP in 2024. In June 2024, he published a 165-page research paper titled “Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead,” predicting the arrival of AGI around 2027 and its fundamental reshaping of the global economic power structure.
二、基金规模：单季再度翻倍
II. Fund Scale: Doubled Again in a Single Quarter
Q1 2026最新13F显示，Situational Awareness LP持仓总名义价值已达137亿美元，较Q4 2025的55.2亿美元单季增长148%。
The latest Q1 2026 13F filing shows Situational Awareness LP’s total notional position value has reached $13.7 billion, up 148% from $5.52 billion in Q4 2025 — doubling again in a single quarter.
距基金2024年Q4首次披露时的2.55亿美元，不足18个月。
This is from a starting point of just $254.8 million in Q4 2024 — less than 18 months ago.
三、最大亮点：巨量半导体看跌期权
III. Headline Move: Massive Semiconductor Put Options
本季度最引人注目的操作是基金新建了一批规模庞大的半导体行业看跌期权，全部为新仓（New）：
The most eye-catching moves this quarter were a series of large new put option positions across the semiconductor sector — all newly initiated:
VanEck半导体ETF（SMH）Put：$20.4亿
Nvidia（NVDA）Put：$15.7亿
甲骨文（ORCL）Put：$10.7亿
博通（AVGO）Put：$10.1亿
AMD Put：$9.69亿
美光（MU）Put：$5.84亿
台积电（TSM）Put：$5.35亿
ASML Put：$4.94亿
英特尔（INTC）Put：新建
VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) Put: $2.04B
Nvidia (NVDA) Put: $1.57B
Oracle (ORCL) Put: $1.07B
Broadcom (AVGO) Put: $1.01B
AMD Put: $969M
Micron (MU) Put: $584M
TSMC Put: $535M
ASML Put: $494M
Intel (INTC) Put: New
四、同时：AI基础设施核心仓位持续增持
IV. Meanwhile: Core AI Infrastructure Positions Continue to Build
SanDisk（SNDK）股票：仓位+189.5%，升至$7.24亿
CoreWeave（CRWV）股票：仓位+27.3%，升至$5.56亿
IREN Limited：仓位+22%，升至$4.01亿
Applied Digital（APLD）：仓位+15.1%，升至约$3.8亿
SanDisk (SNDK) equity: +189.5%, up to $724M
CoreWeave (CRWV) equity: +27.3%, up to $556M
IREN Limited equity: +22%, up to $401M
Applied Digital (APLD) equity: +15.1%, up to ~$380M
五、主要减持与清仓
V. Key Reductions and Exits
Bloom Energy（BE）：此前第一大重仓股，减持359万股，仓位占比从15.87%降至6.42%，绝对持仓仍有$8.78亿。
Bloom Energy (BE): Previously the largest holding, reduced by 3.59M shares. Allocation dropped from 15.87% to 6.42%, though absolute holdings remain at $878M.
CoreWeave Call期权：减持81.8%，从$7.74亿缩减至$1.41亿，基金将杠杆从期权转向正股，属去杠杆操作，并非看空CoreWeave。
CoreWeave (CRWV) Call options: Reduced by 81.8%, from $774M to $141M. The fund is rotating leverage from options into the underlying equity — a deleveraging move, not a bearish signal.
完全清仓：Intel Corp Call期权、Lumentum股票、CIFR、HUT（比特币矿企）。
Full exits: Intel Corp Call options, Lumentum equity, CIFR, HUT (Bitcoin miners).
六、如何正确解读这批看跌期权
VI. How to Read These Put Options Correctly
许多人看到如此庞大的半导体Put头寸，第一反应是Aschenbrenner在做空英伟达、博通和台积电。这个解读是错的。
Many who see these large semiconductor put positions will instinctively conclude that Aschenbrenner is betting against Nvidia, Broadcom, and TSMC. That reading is incorrect.
首先，如果他真的看跌这些公司，他不会同时在同一季度大幅加仓SanDisk、CoreWeave、IREN和Applied Digital——这些都是AI基础设施的直接受益股。方向自相矛盾，除非Put的真正功能不是做空，而是保护多头。
If he were genuinely bearish on these companies, he would not simultaneously be adding aggressively to SanDisk, CoreWeave, IREN, and Applied Digital in the same quarter — all direct AI infrastructure beneficiaries. The directional contradiction resolves only when you understand that the puts are not a bearish bet, but a hedge protecting the long book.
其次，13F披露的是期权名义价值，而非实际支付的期权金。$15.7亿的英伟达Put，实际成本可能只有名义值的一小部分。这是标准的投资组合对冲成本，不代表等额的做空押注。
Second, 13F filings disclose notional value, not the actual premium paid. A $1.57B Nvidia put position may have cost only a fraction of that notional figure in actual premium. This is a standard portfolio hedging cost, not an equivalent short bet.
正确的理解框架是：Aschenbrenner认为AGI驱动的算力需求是真实且长期的，但半导体板块当前的估值已经定价了大量乐观预期，存在因宏观扰动或估值收缩引发系统性回调的风险。他的策略是同时持有两条线——继续押注AI基础设施真正受益股，同时用半导体Put作为宏观尾部对冲，确保即便半导体板块出现阶段性重挫，整体组合仍能保持盈利。
The correct interpretive framework: Aschenbrenner believes AGI-driven compute demand is real and durable, but that semiconductor valuations have already priced in considerable optimism and carry systemic pullback risk from macro disruption or multiple compression. His strategy runs two tracks simultaneously — maintaining concentrated exposure to the true AI infrastructure beneficiaries, while using semiconductor puts as macro tail hedges to ensure the overall portfolio remains profitable even if the semiconductor sector undergoes a significant correction.
这不是做空英伟达。这是一个成熟的多空对冲框架，用少量期权金锁定尾部风险，让核心多头仓位可以安心持有更长时间。
This is not a short on Nvidia. It is a sophisticated long/short hedging framework — using a relatively small options premium to contain tail risk, allowing the core long positions to be held with conviction over a longer horizon.
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祝你投资顺遂，生活丰盛。
May your investments prosper and your life flourish.
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