市场越跌，机会越近：超额收益从低位开始 Market Down, Opportunity Up: Where Outperformance Begins

一、大盘看法：短期风险升温，但回调本身也是重新布局的机会

1. Market View: Short-Term Risks Are Rising, but Pullbacks Can Create New Opportunities

8月核心CPI高于预期，原油价格重新突破每桶100美元，欧洲央行加息，同时市场对美联储9月加息的预期明显升温，加息概率已经接近90%。伊朗局势持续恶化、美加贸易紧张关系升温，加上全球债券收益率上行，都进一步增加了市场短期的不确定性。因此，未来一段时间市场继续震荡甚至进一步回调，并不令人意外。

August core CPI came in above expectations, crude oil has climbed back above $100 per barrel, the European Central Bank has raised rates, and market expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike have risen sharply, with the implied probability now approaching 90%. The worsening situation in Iran, rising U.S.–Canada trade tensions, and higher global bond yields are adding further short-term uncertainty. Against this backdrop, continued volatility — and even a deeper market pullback — would not be surprising.

但团队认为，现在真正重要的不是去猜标普500究竟会跌到哪个具体点位，而是提前想清楚：如果市场真的继续下跌，我们应该做什么？答案不是恐慌，而是准备。

But our team believes the real priority is not trying to predict the exact level where the S&P 500 might bottom. The more important question is: If the market continues to fall, what should we do? The answer is not panic — it is preparation.

市场回调的时候，优质公司的股价同样会被压低。当一家公司的长期增长逻辑没有改变、盈利能力仍然强劲，而估值因为市场情绪回落到合理水平，甚至低于其内在价值时，这恰恰是长期投资者应该逐步增加仓位的时候。不要试图一次猜中最低点，而应当分批买入、控制仓位、保留现金，并在价格逐渐接近自己认可的估值区间时保持耐心地布局。

When markets pull back, high-quality companies are often dragged lower as well. If a company’s long-term growth thesis remains intact, its earnings power remains strong, and its valuation falls to a reasonable level — or even below intrinsic value — that can be precisely the time for long-term investors to gradually build positions. Rather than trying to identify the exact bottom, the better approach is to buy in stages, manage position size, preserve cash, and patiently accumulate as prices move into valuation ranges you find attractive.

真正的超额收益，往往不是在所有人重新乐观、股价已经大幅上涨之后追出来的，而是在市场低迷、情绪悲观、优质资产被打折的时候慢慢建立出来的。

True excess returns are rarely created by chasing stocks after optimism has returned and prices have already surged. They are often built gradually when markets are weak, sentiment is pessimistic, and high-quality assets are trading at discounted valuations.

二、机构整体趋于谨慎，但我们更关注企业真正发生了什么

2. Institutions Are Turning More Cautious, but We Focus on What Businesses Are Actually Doing

目前机构整体态度明显偏谨慎。花旗认为，如果9月份美联储重新加息，2027年下半年可能出现三次降息。面对潜在的加息风险，市场资金正在重新评估不同资产的风险收益比。

Institutional sentiment has clearly become more cautious. Citi believes that if the Federal Reserve raises rates again in September, three rate cuts could follow in the second half of 2027. With the possibility of another rate hike, investors are reassessing the risk-reward profile across different asset classes.

现在真正需要思考的问题是：全球收益率上升，究竟代表经济增长好于预期、通胀高于预期，还是债务风险正在增加？ 团队目前更倾向于经济增长最终可能好于市场预期，尽管近期市场的抛售很大程度上仍然来自对美联储政策以及通胀前景的担忧。

The key question is: Do rising global yields reflect stronger-than-expected economic growth, higher-than-expected inflation, or increasing debt-related risks? Our team currently leans toward the view that economic growth may ultimately prove stronger than the market expects, even though much of the recent selling has clearly been driven by concerns surrounding Federal Reserve policy and the inflation outlook.

收益率上升确实会降低未来利润的现值，因此对高增长科技股尤其敏感。但如果收益率上升的同时，企业收入和盈利仍然保持强劲增长，那么真正需要关注的就不是市场一天跌了多少，而是：公司的基本面有没有改变？

Higher yields do reduce the present value of future earnings, making high-growth technology stocks particularly sensitive. But if corporate revenue and earnings remain strong while yields rise, the more important question is not how much the market falls in a single day. It is: Have the company’s fundamentals actually changed?

三、满屏都是坏消息，但标普500距离历史高点其实并不远

3. Bad News Is Everywhere — Yet the S&P 500 Remains Close to Its Record High

现在市场每天都有足够多令人担忧的事情。人工智能正在威胁大量传统工作岗位，市场不断讨论AI基础设施支出是否会放缓；10年期美国国债收益率接近5%，明显高于一年前约4%的水平；原油价格自7月以来首次重新突破每桶100美元；8月核心通胀高于预期，市场认为美联储本月再次加息的概率接近90%。

There is no shortage of things for investors to worry about. Artificial intelligence is threatening many traditional jobs, while markets continue debating whether AI infrastructure spending will slow. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is approaching 5%, compared with roughly 4% a year ago. Crude oil has moved back above $100 per barrel for the first time since July, while August core inflation exceeded expectations and markets are pricing in a near-90% probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike this month.

伊朗局势仍然不稳定，中国则希望扮演和平推动者的角色。代币化股票正在逐渐进入传统券商体系，未来投资者甚至可能在凌晨3点交易自己喜欢的公司。与此同时，电网既要满足普通居民的用电需求，又要为规模越来越庞大的AI数据中心提供电力。华盛顿一边回购国债，一边继续大量发行新国债，日本债券市场也在剧烈波动，亚洲部分对冲基金正在重新调整资金配置。

Iran remains unstable, while China is seeking to play the role of peacemaker. Tokenized equities are gradually entering traditional brokerage platforms, potentially allowing investors to trade their favorite companies even at 3 a.m. Meanwhile, power grids must simultaneously meet ordinary household demand and supply increasingly massive AI data centers. Washington is buying back Treasuries while continuing to issue large amounts of new debt, and volatility in Japan’s bond market is prompting some Asian hedge funds to reconsider their capital allocation.

选择你的担忧。今天几乎每一种恐惧，都能够找到与之对应的新闻标题。

Pick your concern. Almost every fear imaginable has a headline to support it.

但看看市场本身。2026年8月13日，标普500指数创下 7798.99点的纪录，而即使经历近期的震荡，市场距离历史高点仍然只有几个百分点。这就是现在非常值得思考的地方：新闻给人的感觉，与企业和市场实际发生的事情，并不总是一回事。

But look at the market itself. On August 13, 2026, the S&P 500 reached a record 7,798.99, and even after the recent volatility, it remains only a few percentage points below that high. That is what makes the current environment so interesting: What the headlines make us feel and what businesses and markets are actually doing are not always the same thing.

恐慌性的新闻标题每天都会改变，真正长期创造财富的，始终是企业的盈利能力、现金流、资产负债表和竞争地位。

Fear-driven headlines change every day. Over the long run, what creates wealth is still a company’s earnings power, cash flow, balance sheet, and competitive position.

四、混乱创造机会，而低迷市场往往决定下一轮收益

4. Chaos Creates Opportunity — and Weak Markets Often Shape the Next Cycle of Returns

每当市场同时面对大量担忧时，类似的情况都会出现。社交媒体和新闻报道进一步放大情绪，程序化交易、巨大的流动性以及创纪录的期权交易量，又进一步增加短期市场波动。但从长期投资角度看，波动并不只有风险的一面。波动同样创造价格。

Whenever markets face multiple concerns at once, the same pattern tends to emerge. Social media and news coverage amplify emotions, while algorithmic trading, abundant liquidity, and record options activity can further intensify short-term volatility. But from a long-term investor’s perspective, volatility is not only a source of risk. Volatility also creates price opportunities.

一家真正优秀的公司，如果在市场情绪高涨的时候估值已经非常昂贵，即使公司很好，也未必能够给投资者留下足够大的回报空间。反过来，当市场因为宏观担忧而整体下跌，真正优秀的公司同样被抛售，估值重新回到合理水平，甚至低于内在价值时，长期投资者反而获得了更好的选择权。

A truly exceptional company can still be a poor investment if its valuation becomes excessively expensive during periods of market optimism. Conversely, when macro concerns drive the entire market lower and high-quality companies are sold alongside everything else, valuations can return to reasonable levels — or even fall below intrinsic value — giving long-term investors far more attractive opportunities.

这也是团队希望会员真正理解的一点：如果你在市场低迷、估值合理，甚至股价低于内在价值的时候都不敢投资，那么当市场重新上涨时，你很难处于领先位置，也很难获得真正的超额收益。

This is one of the most important principles we want our members to understand: If you are unwilling to invest when markets are weak, valuations are reasonable, or prices have fallen below intrinsic value, it will be difficult to be ahead when the market eventually rises again — and equally difficult to generate genuine excess returns.

等到所有坏消息消失、市场重新乐观、股价重新突破新高的时候，最好的价格往往已经过去。对于长期投资者来说，最大的风险不一定是短期波动，更大的风险，是机会真正出现的时候选择袖手旁观。

By the time the bad news disappears, optimism returns, and stocks are making new highs again, the best prices may already be gone. For long-term investors, the greatest risk is not necessarily short-term volatility. The greater risk may be standing on the sidelines when genuine opportunities appear.

五、不要猜最低点，真正重要的是分批建立仓位

5. Don’t Try to Predict the Bottom — Build Positions Gradually

没有人能够持续准确预测市场最低点。因此团队的策略不是“等到最低点出现，我再一次买进去”，而是：当优质公司的估值开始进入合理区域，就逐步建立仓位。

No one can consistently identify the exact market bottom. That is why our strategy is not to say, “I’ll wait for the absolute bottom and then buy everything at once.” Instead: When high-quality companies enter reasonable valuation ranges, begin building positions gradually.

如果市场继续下跌，再按照自己的资金计划分批增加。这样做的目的不是为了买在最低的那一天，而是希望在整个低估值区域获得一个合理的平均成本。

If the market continues lower, additional purchases can be made in stages according to your capital plan. The goal is not to buy on the single lowest day. The goal is to achieve a reasonable average cost throughout an undervalued price range.

长期投资真正决定最终收益的，是：你买了什么公司、你用什么价格买入，以及你能够持有多久。 当市场下跌的时候慢慢买进，真正的价值往往要等到下一轮市场上涨之后才会体现出来。

What ultimately determines long-term investment returns is what you own, the price you paid, and how long you can hold it. The value of gradually accumulating during a market decline often becomes clear only when the next market advance begins.

低位建立仓位，上涨享受企业成长和估值修复，这才是超额收益形成的重要来源。

Build positions at attractive prices, then allow business growth and valuation recovery to work in your favor as markets recover. That is one of the key foundations of excess returns.

六、企业盈利仍然是市场最重要的底层支撑

6. Corporate Earnings Remain the Market’s Most Important Fundamental Support

在大量悲观新闻背后，企业真正公布的数据却呈现出另一幅画面。标普500成分股公司刚刚公布了自2021年以来最强劲的盈利增长，第二季度利润同比平均增长40%，营收实现两位数增长，业绩超预期幅度达到多年高位，并已经连续第12个季度实现盈利增长。

Behind all the negative headlines, actual corporate results are telling a very different story. S&P 500 companies have just reported their strongest earnings growth since 2021, with average second-quarter profits rising 40% year over year, revenue growing at a double-digit pace, earnings beats reaching multi-year highs, and aggregate earnings growth continuing for a 12th consecutive quarter.

所以团队更愿意把注意力放在：企业真正赚了多少钱、收入增长多少、现金流有没有改善、竞争优势有没有加强。 市场每天都可以讨论无数个“可能发生”的宏观情景，但企业最终必须公布真实的收入和利润。

That is why our team prefers to focus on how much companies are actually earning, how quickly revenue is growing, whether cash flow is improving, and whether competitive advantages are strengthening. Markets can debate countless macroeconomic scenarios every day, but companies ultimately have to report real revenue and real profits.

盈利潜力始终是长期财富积累最重要的基础之一。

Earnings power remains one of the most important foundations of long-term wealth creation.

七、标普500长期趋势仍然值得关注

7. The S&P 500’s Long-Term Trend Still Matters

标普500指数的200日移动平均线，可以简单理解为反映市场长期潜在趋势的一条平滑曲线。目前这条均线已经连续上涨 329个交易日，是过去十年第四长的连续上升纪录。

The S&P 500’s 200-day moving average can be viewed as a smoothed measure of the market’s underlying long-term trend. It has now risen for 329 consecutive trading days, the fourth-longest such streak of the past decade.

数据显示，自1999年以来，当标普500的200日均线保持上升趋势时，其年化平均回报率约为 8.5%；而当200日均线处于下降趋势时，年化平均回报率仅约 0.1%。

Since 1999, when the S&P 500’s 200-day moving average has been rising, its average annualized return has been approximately 8.5%. When that moving average has been declining, the average annualized return has been only around 0.1%.

这并不代表市场不会出现10%、15%甚至更大的阶段性调整。它真正提醒我们的是：短期波动和长期趋势，是两件完全不同的事情。

This does not mean the market cannot experience corrections of 10%, 15%, or even more. What it reminds us is that short-term volatility and long-term trends are two very different things.

八、历史数据告诉我们：时间一直站在长期投资者这一边

8. History Shows That Time Has Been a Powerful Ally for Long-Term Investors

自1928年以来，大约经历了24,700个交易日，单日收盘上涨的概率约为53%；大约94个5年滚动周期，其中约88%的周期最终收盘点位高于起点；大约89个10年滚动周期，其中约95%的周期最终收盘点位高于起点；大约79个20年滚动周期，其中100%的周期最终实现更高的收盘点位。

Since 1928, there have been roughly 24,700 trading days, with the market closing higher on approximately 53% of them. Across roughly 94 rolling five-year periods, about 88% ended higher than where they began. Across approximately 89 rolling ten-year periods, about 95% finished higher, while all of the roughly 79 rolling twenty-year periods ended with higher closing levels.

这组数据真正值得思考的，不是市场每天有多大概率上涨，而是：投资周期越长，短期噪音的重要性就越低。

The important message is not the probability of the market rising on any individual day. It is that the longer the investment horizon, the less important short-term noise becomes.

所以团队一直强调保持简单：当别人因为恐慌争相离场时，研究真正优质的资产；当估值进入合理区域时，分批布局；集中精力研究自己真正理解的公司；利用高概率策略寻找更好的入场机会。不要因为几个星期的市场波动，破坏自己几年的投资计划。

That is why our team continues to emphasize simplicity: study high-quality assets when others are rushing for the exits, accumulate gradually when valuations become reasonable, focus on businesses you genuinely understand, and use higher-probability strategies to seek better entry points. Do not allow a few weeks of market volatility to destroy an investment plan designed for years.