TSM · 深度研究报告 · In-Depth Research Report
台积电（TSM）Q2财报全面超预期，AI需求驱动创纪录增长
TSMC (TSM) Delivers Blowout Q2 2026 Earnings as AI Demand Drives Record Growth
台积电于2026年7月16日公布第二季度财报，业绩远超市场预期，再次凸显其作为全球领先晶圆代工厂的支配地位，尤其受益于AI与高性能计算（HPC）芯片需求的爆发式增长。
TSMC reported Q2 2026 earnings on July 16, 2026, with results far exceeding market expectations, once again underscoring its dominant position as the world's leading foundry — driven in large part by explosive demand for AI and high-performance computing (HPC) chips.
营收方面，公司录得约402亿美元（新台币1.27万亿元），同比增长约33-36%，达到此前指导区间上限，创下单季新高。6月单月营收新台币442.68亿元，月增6.2%、年增67.9%，上半年累计营收新台币2.404万亿元，年增35.6%。
Revenue came in at approximately $40.2 billion (NT$1.27 trillion), up roughly 33–36% year-over-year and at the high end of prior guidance, marking a new quarterly record. June revenue alone reached NT$44.268 billion, up 6.2% month-over-month and 67.9% year-over-year, bringing first-half cumulative revenue to NT$2.404 trillion, up 35.6% year-over-year.
利润端表现同样亮眼，净利润创纪录，同比增长约77%，ADR每股收益约4.31美元。毛利率约67.7%，环比进一步提升，反映出先进制程的高利用率与强劲定价能力。业务结构上，7纳米及以下先进制程占晶圆营收77%，高性能计算业务占比达66%，环比增长20%，2纳米制程也已开始贡献营收。
Profitability was equally impressive, with net income up roughly 77% year-over-year and ADR EPS at approximately $4.31. Gross margin reached about 67.7%, improving further sequentially and reflecting high utilization and strong pricing power in advanced nodes. On the business mix, advanced nodes (7nm and below) accounted for 77% of wafer revenue, while HPC made up 66% of revenue, up 20% sequentially, with 2nm technology also beginning to contribute.
管理层对第三季度指引同样乐观：营收预计452亿美元，大幅高于市场此前预期的381亿美元，同比增长37%；毛利率维持在66%，营业利润率57%，均与市场预期一致。全年美元营收增长指引上调至略高于40%（此前为超过30%）。2026年资本支出上调至600-640亿美元，以加速2纳米及先进封装产能扩张，其中包括在美国亚利桑那州追加1000亿美元投资。管理层同时表示，未来三年资本支出将比过去三年"更加显著地高"。
Management's Q3 guidance was equally upbeat: revenue is projected at $45.2 billion, well above the prior consensus of $38.1 billion, representing 37% year-over-year growth. Gross margin is guided at 66% and operating margin at 57%, both in line with expectations. Full-year dollar revenue growth guidance was raised to just above 40%, up from the prior 30%+ estimate. 2026 capex was raised to a range of $60–64 billion to accelerate 2nm and advanced packaging capacity, including an additional $100 billion investment in Arizona. Management also noted that capex over the next three years will be "significantly higher" than the prior three years.
值得注意的是，2nm制程目前仅占晶圆营收的3%，这意味着台积电最大规模的制程节点转型才刚刚起步，未来增长空间依然广阔。
Notably, the 2nm node currently accounts for just 3% of wafer revenue — meaning TSMC's largest process-node transition is still in its earliest stages, leaving substantial room for future growth.
台积电作为几乎所有主流人工智能平台背后的制造支柱，只要全球对计算能力的需求持续增长，其在AI供应链中的核心地位便难以撼动。近期股价有所回落，团队认为这正是分段布局期权的机会。团队建议以中长线视角看待这一机会，重点把握公司在2nm制程爬坡与AI需求持续扩张周期中的长期价值。
As the manufacturing backbone behind nearly every major AI platform, TSMC's central role in the AI supply chain remains difficult to displace as long as global demand for compute continues to grow. With the recent pullback, our team sees this as an opportunity for staged options positioning. We recommend approaching this opportunity with a medium-to-long-term perspective, focusing on the company's long-term value through the 2nm ramp and the ongoing AI demand expansion cycle.
以下是团队对TSM最新操作建议
Below is the team's latest strategy for TSM
