ARM · 深度研究报告 · In-Depth Research Report

Q4 FY2026全年收入约$49.2亿同比增长约23%连续第三年20%以上增长、数据中心Royalty同比翻倍、Arm AGI CPU正式推出进入自设计芯片领域、CSS授权持续扩张。

Q4 FY2026 full-year revenue of approximately $4.92 billion, up approximately 23% year-over-year, marking the third consecutive year of 20%-plus growth; data center royalties doubled year-over-year; Arm AGI CPU officially launched, entering the custom chip design space; CSS licensing continues to expand.

当市场在约三个月前因短期叙事制造折价，我们在公众注意力最低的窗口完成布局。今天约$315的价位，是Arm基本面持续兑现、市场叙事从悲观到重估过程中，每一个坚持持有的会员共同见证的结果。

When the market created a discount roughly three months ago on short-term narratives, we built our position during the window of lowest public attention. Today’s price of approximately $315 is the result witnessed by every member who held firm — as Arm’s fundamentals continued to deliver and market sentiment shifted from pessimism to revaluation.

从约$100建仓至今天最高约$315，累计升幅约215%，原基本目标价约$216与乐观目标价约$280均已全面达成并超越，恭喜所有在约$100区间与团队一起完成建仓的会员。

From our initial position near $100 to today’s high of approximately $315, the cumulative gain stands at approximately 215%. Both our original base target of approximately $216 and our bullish target of approximately $280 have been fully achieved and exceeded. Congratulations to all members who built their positions alongside the team in the $100 range.

这两天发生了什么

What Happened Over the Past Two Days

5月20至21日，Arm连续两日急速拉升，单日最高升幅约16%，最高触及约$298.69。这波拉升由多个催化剂叠加驱动：Q4 FY2026财报于5月6日公布，全年收入约$49.2亿创历史纪录，数据中心Royalty同比翻倍，Non-GAAP EPS约$0.60超出预期；Bernstein以Outperform评级启动覆盖并给出约$300目标价，BofA同步上调至约$300，TD Cowen等多家机构跟进上调，分析师目标价上调潮在财报后正式启动；Nvidia财报确认Vera CPU今年收入预期约$200亿，Arm架构在超大规模算力基础设施的份额迁移获得最强力的外部验证。

On May 20 and 21, Arm surged for two consecutive sessions, with a single-day gain of up to approximately 16% and an intraday high of approximately $298.69. The rally was driven by multiple converging catalysts: Q4 FY2026 earnings released on May 6 showed full-year revenue of approximately $4.92 billion — a historic record — with data center royalties doubling year-over-year and Non-GAAP EPS of approximately $0.60 beating expectations; Bernstein initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a target of approximately $300, BofA simultaneously raised its target to approximately $300, and TD Cowen along with multiple other institutions followed with upgrades, officially launching a post-earnings analyst target revision cycle; Nvidia’s earnings confirmed Vera CPU revenue expectations of approximately $20 billion for the year, providing the strongest external validation yet for Arm’s share gains in hyperscale compute infrastructure.

下半部分，我们会拆解Arm纳入核心持仓名单的四大核心逻辑、最新业绩深度解读、我们独立得出的新目标价区间，以及不同类型会员的具体建议。

In the section below, we break down the four core reasons Arm was added to our core holdings list, provide a deep dive into the latest earnings, share our independently derived new price target range, and outline specific recommendations for different member types.