INTC ·后市策略 Forward Strategy
英特尔长线转折故事：我们两轮目标价已兑现
Intel's Long-Term Turnaround Story: Two Rounds of Price Targets Already Delivered
我们早在2026年2月便率先在平台锁定 $INTC 的建仓价位约 $35，并第一时间与会员分享。此后数月，股价先后突破我们的第一目标价 $60，再一举升穿乐观目标价 $85，从$35升至$85，涨幅约为142.9%。
We first identified Intel's entry zone at approximately $35 back in February 2026 and shared it with our members ahead of the broader market. In the months that followed, the stock broke through our first base target of $60, then surged past our optimistic target of $85, rising from $35 to $85, a gain of approximately 142.9%.
在此之后，我们的量化研究团队完成新一轮基本面评估，正式发出第二次目标价上调，将12至24个月目标价区间上调至 $110 至 $140。到6月初，这两个上调后的目标价同样提前全部兑现。创下历史新高$142.3。总涨幅约306%
🎉 再次恭喜一路跟随我们分阶段止盈指引的会员朋友
团队提醒会员们在每一个目标价位分批锁定利润，同时保留资金迎接下一次机会。
After that, our quantitative research team completed a new round of fundamental assessment and formally issued a second price target upgrade, raising the 12-to-24-month target range to $110 to $140. By early June, these upgraded targets had also both been fully achieved ahead of schedule, setting a fresh all-time high of $142.3, for a total gain of approximately 306%.
Congratulations again to the members who followed our staged profit-taking guidance all the way through.
The team reminds members to lock in profits in stages at each target price level, while keeping capital reserved for the next opportunity.
而在经历一段回调整理之后，目前的盘面重新变得值得关注。但这究竟是真正意义上的重新建仓窗口，还是芯片股波动周期中的又一次下探？
After a period of pullback and consolidation, the current price action has once again become worth watching. But is this genuinely a new re-entry window, or just another dip within the volatility cycle typical of chip stocks?
财务表现（Q2 2026，截至6月27日）
营收：$161亿，同比大增25%（过去15年来最快增速），远超华尔街预期（约$144亿）。
Non-GAAP EPS：$0.42（预期约$0.21），大幅超预期。
GAAP净亏损：$110亿（或每股-$2.16），主因与美国政府CHIPS Act相关的$125亿 mark-to-market 费用（Escrowed Shares）。剔除后，Non-GAAP净利约$22亿。
毛利率：Non-GAAP 41.8%（同比提升12.1个百分点，高于指引）；GAAP 40.4%。
经营现金流：$70亿。
分部亮点：
Data Center & AI (DCAI)：$63亿，同比+59%（服务器CPU ASP大幅提升，需求超供应）。
Client Computing & Physical AI (CCPG)：$89亿，同比+13%（ASP上升驱动）。
Intel Foundry：$58亿，同比+31%（但经营亏损$21亿，较上年改善；外部客户营收仅约$2.93亿）。
AI相关业务合计同比增长超70%，占总营收约70%。
Q3 2026指引（已超预期）：
营收：$158–168亿（中点$163亿，高于共识约$151亿）。
Non-GAAP EPS：$0.38；GAAP EPS：$0.31。
Non-GAAP毛利率约42%。
Financial Performance (Q2 2026, as of June 27)
Revenue: $16.1 billion, up 25% year-over-year (the fastest growth rate in the past 15 years), far exceeding Wall Street's expectations of approximately $14.4 billion.
Non-GAAP EPS: $0.42 (versus an expected approximately $0.21), a significant beat.
GAAP net loss: $11.0 billion (or -$2.16 per share), primarily due to a $12.5 billion mark-to-market charge related to the U.S. government's CHIPS Act (Escrowed Shares). Excluding this, Non-GAAP net income was approximately $2.2 billion.
Gross margin: Non-GAAP 41.8% (up 12.1 percentage points year-over-year, above guidance); GAAP 40.4%.
Operating cash flow: $7.0 billion.
Segment highlights:
Data Center & AI (DCAI): $6.3 billion, up 59% year-over-year (driven by significantly higher server CPU ASP, with demand exceeding supply).
Client Computing & Physical AI (CCPG): $8.9 billion, up 13% year-over-year (driven by rising ASP).
Intel Foundry: $5.8 billion, up 31% year-over-year (but with an operating loss of $2.1 billion, improved from the prior year; external customer revenue was only approximately $293 million).
AI-related businesses combined grew over 70% year-over-year, accounting for approximately 70% of total revenue.
Q3 2026 guidance (already above expectations):
Revenue: $15.8–16.8 billion (midpoint $16.3 billion, above the consensus of approximately $15.1 billion).
Non-GAAP EPS: $0.38; GAAP EPS: $0.31.
Non-GAAP gross margin: approximately 42%.
团队研究了最新的数据，结合了最新的基本面和公司财报内容，给出最新的后市策略
我们对该标的的信心，始终建立在中长线逻辑之上：AI时代CPU需求的结构性复苏，叠加英特尔代工业务外部客户的持续突破，构成的是一个跨越数年的重新估值机会，而非短线交易。
The team has studied the latest data, combined with the latest fundamentals and company earnings content, to provide the latest forward-looking strategy.
Our confidence in this stock has always been built on medium-to-long-term logic: the structural recovery in CPU demand in the AI era, combined with Intel's continued breakthroughs with external Foundry customers, together constitute a multi-year re-rating opportunity, not a short-term trade.
