SMR · 高风险高回报 · High Risk Reward
过去一年，SMR从52周低点约$11涨至历史高位约$57，涨幅超过四倍。
In the past year, SMR has risen from a 52-week low of approximately $11 to an all-time high of approximately $57, an increase of more than fourfold.
今天的股价：约$12，从高位跌落约八成。
Today's stock price: approximately $12, a drop of about 80% from its high.
同一时期，NuScale完成了一件在SMR行业史上前所未有的事：与美国田纳西河谷管理局签署了约6吉瓦的SMR部署非约束性协议——美国历史上规模最大的单一SMR项目承诺。
During the same period, NuScale completed something unprecedented in the history of the SMR industry: signing a non-binding agreement with the Tennessee Valley Authority for the deployment of approximately 6 GW of SMRs—the largest single SMR project commitment in U.S. history.
股价跌了八成，却同时签下了史上最大SMR合同。这个反差，就是今天这篇报告存在的原因。
The stock price has dropped by 80%, yet it simultaneously signed the largest SMR contract in history. This contrast is the reason this report exists today.
NuScale是什么
What is NuScale
NuScale是全球唯一一家获得美国核管理委员会完整设计认证的SMR技术公司。 这句话的含义非常重要：不是”正在申请认证”，不是”预计获批”，而是已经获批。在整个SMR行业里，这个认证只有NuScale拥有，是真实存在的技术壁垒。
NuScale is the only SMR technology company in the world to have received full design certification from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The meaning of this sentence is very important: it is not "applying for certification" or "expected to be approved," but already approved. In the entire SMR industry, only NuScale possesses this certification, which is a real technical barrier.
它的核心产品是NuScale Power Module，每个模块可产生约77兆瓦电力。 最多可以12个模块串联，总输出约924兆瓦。模块化设计意味着客户可以按需扩展，从小型工业设施到大型AI数据中心园区都可以适配。
Its core product is the NuScale Power Module, with each module capable of generating approximately 77 MW of electricity. Up to 12 modules can be connected in series, with a total output of approximately 924 MW. The modular design means customers can expand as needed, suitable for everything from small industrial facilities to large AI data center campuses.
为什么2025年能涨超过四倍
Why it could rise more than fourfold in 2025
驱动力有三个：
There are three driving forces:
第一，AI数据中心电力需求叙事全面爆发，核能被视为唯一能提供24小时稳定、零碳、大规模电力的解决方案，整个核能板块全面重新定价。
First, the AI data center power demand narrative has exploded, with nuclear power seen as the only solution capable of providing 24-hour stable, zero-carbon, large-scale electricity, leading to a comprehensive re-pricing of the entire nuclear sector.
第二，NuScale通过全球商业化合作伙伴ENTRA1，与美国田纳西河谷管理局签署约6吉瓦SMR部署非约束性协议，直接触发市场对NuScale商业化前景的重新定价。
Second, NuScale, through its global commercialization partner ENTRA1, signed a non-binding agreement for approximately 6 GW of SMR deployment with the Tennessee Valley Authority, directly triggering a re-pricing of NuScale's commercialization prospects by the market.
第三，美国政府明确支持核能复兴，政策顺风持续强化。NRC批准了77兆瓦SMR设计，公司同时建立了约$13亿的流动性储备。
Third, the U.S. government has clearly supported a nuclear renaissance, with policy headwinds continuously strengthening. The NRC approved the 77 MW SMR design, and the company has simultaneously established a liquidity reserve of approximately $1.3 billion.
为什么之后跌了八成
Why it subsequently dropped by 80%
多家证券集体诉讼律师事务所就ENTRA1相关披露问题提出集体诉讼，诉讼截止日期为2026年4月。
Multiple securities class action law firms have filed class action lawsuits regarding disclosure issues related to ENTRA1, with a lawsuit deadline of April 2026.
Fluor已完成出售约7100万股NuScale股份，套现约$13.5亿，并正在推进剩余约4000万股的变现，预计2026年Q2完成。 这是NuScale最重要的早期投资人和工程合作伙伴，其系统性退出对市场情绪造成持续压制。
Fluor has completed the sale of approximately 71 million shares of NuScale, cashing out approximately $1.35 billion, and is progressing with the liquidation of the remaining approximately 40 million shares, expected to be completed in Q2 2026. This was NuScale's most important early investor and engineering partner, and its systematic exit has caused continuous suppression of market sentiment.
CEO、CFO、CTO、COO等多名高管近期均有减持，内部人士大规模退出正在压制市场情绪。
Several senior executives, including the CEO, CFO, CTO, and COO, have recently reduced their holdings, and the large-scale exit of insiders is suppressing market sentiment.
2025年Q4营收仅约$180万，大幅低于分析师预期的约$876万，EPS亏损约$0.80，大幅低于预期的约$0.10亏损。
Q4 2025 revenue was only approximately $1.8 million, significantly lower than the approximately $8.76 million expected by analysts, with an EPS loss of approximately $0.80, significantly lower than the expected loss of approximately $0.10.
这些问题是真实的，不能回避。
These problems are real and cannot be avoided.
那今天还有什么值得押注
So what is still worth betting on today
风险已经摆在台面上，但几件事没有改变：
The risks are already on the table, but several things have not changed:
NRC认证的事实没有改变。TVA约6吉瓦的部署框架没有取消。公司持有约$13亿现金储备，流动性充裕。 罗马尼亚RoPower项目在推进前期工程设计。美国橡树岭国家实验室与NuScale合作，获得DOE资助，将AI技术应用于12模块NuScale配置的核电设计——这是政府层面持续背书的最新信号。
The fact of NRC certification has not changed. The framework for approximately 6 GW of deployment with TVA has not been canceled. The company holds a cash reserve of approximately $1.3 billion, with ample liquidity. The RoPower project in Romania is progressing with front-end engineering design. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is collaborating with NuScale, with DOE funding, to apply AI technology to the nuclear design of a 12-module NuScale configuration—this is the latest signal of continuous endorsement at the government level.
RBC Capital最新目标价约$14，高盛目标价约$14，评级中性。 华尔街对这只股票的多空分歧极大，但约78%的股权由机构投资者持有，说明仍有大量机构选择持仓观望。
RBC Capital's latest target price is approximately $14, and Goldman Sachs' target price is approximately $14, with a neutral rating. Wall Street has a huge long-short divide on this stock, but approximately 78% of the equity is held by institutional investors, indicating that a large number of institutions are choosing to wait and see.
这是一个风险极高、但如果核能叙事持续、TVA协议从框架走向实质、诉讼风险得到控制，可能带来极大回报的高赔率押注。
This is a high-risk bet, but if the nuclear energy narrative continues, the TVA agreement moves from a framework to substance, and the litigation risks are controlled, it could bring a high-odds return.
NuScale是全球SMR行业里唯一有NRC完整认证的公司，TVA约6吉瓦协议是美国历史上最大的SMR部署承诺。但ENTRA1诉讼、Fluor系统性退出、高管集体减持三重压力同时压制股价。从约$57跌到约$12之后，这个价格是过度惩罚还是合理定价？下半部分，我们会给出具体的分批建仓价位、三个阶段的止盈目标，以及哪些信号出现时需要立即离场。
NuScale is the only company in the global SMR industry with full NRC certification, and the approximately 6 GW TVA agreement is the largest SMR deployment commitment in U.S. history. However, the triple pressures of the ENTRA1 lawsuit, Fluor's systematic exit, and collective executive selling are simultaneously suppressing the stock price. After dropping from approximately $57 to approximately $12, is this price excessive punishment or reasonable pricing? In the second half, we will provide specific staggered entry price levels, three-stage take-profit targets, and signals that would require an immediate exit.
