恐慌背后的机会 Opportunity Behind the Fear
你好，希望你今天一切都好。
Hello, hope you're having a great day.
最近新闻头条铺天盖地，如果你觉得金融世界末日即将到来，这也可以理解。它们的设计用途就是如此：激发你的情绪，让你继续阅读，从而让新闻通过广告赚取的数百万美元显得合理……而这些广告收入的受益者正是新闻发布团队。
With headlines everywhere lately, it's understandable if you feel the financial world is about to end. That is exactly what they are designed to do: stir up your emotions and keep you reading, so the millions of dollars the news earns from advertising look justified... and the people who benefit from that advertising revenue are the teams publishing the news.
当然，华尔街喜欢这种情况，因为他们知道，不确定、情绪化和恐惧的投资者往往会进行更多交易，这反过来又会为他们带来数十亿美元的费用……这两件事都与你赚钱无关。
Of course, Wall Street loves this, because they know that uncertain, emotional and fearful investors tend to trade more, which in turn earns them billions of dollars in fees... Neither of these has anything to do with you making money.
所以，如果新闻让你感到烦躁，那就关掉新闻，今天也别碰手机。
So if the news is making you anxious, turn it off and stay off your phone today.
昨天的抛售只是沧海一粟，完全正常，今天也是。
Yesterday's sell-off was just a drop in the ocean and completely normal. So is today's.
不信？团队也经常听到这种质疑，但事情是这样的：155年的市场数据就是证明。值得注意的是，目前的市场水平比同期最差的底部高出2.8倍到1714倍不等。更重要的是，市场已经连续20次复苏……每次都100%复苏了。
Don't believe it? The team hears this doubt often too, but here's the thing: 155 years of market data are the proof. Notably, today's market level is between 2.8 times and 1,714 times higher than the worst bottoms over the same periods. More importantly, the market has recovered 20 times in a row... and every single time, it recovered 100%.
团队最喜欢的一句格言比以往任何时候都更加真切：错失良机的代价，总是比试图规避无法控制的风险要高得多。
The team's favourite saying is truer than ever: the cost of missing an opportunity is always far higher than the cost of trying to avoid risks you cannot control.
轮动理论暗示市场是一场零和博弈。其逻辑是，如果资金从科技股流出，那么它必然会流入价值股、股息、债券或其他领域——这是专家、夸夸其谈者和装腔作势者们给出的答案。
Rotation theory implies the market is a zero-sum game. The logic is that if money flows out of tech stocks, it must flow into value stocks, dividends, bonds or somewhere else. That is the answer given by experts, talking heads and pretenders.
游戏规则不是这样的。随着价格的涨跌，市场不断创造新的利润。这就是为什么——正如上面的图表所展示的那样——长期投资的收益往往会超过短期交易的结果。
That is not how the game works. As prices rise and fall, the market keeps creating new profits. That is why, as the chart above shows, the returns from long-term investing tend to exceed the results of short-term trading.
世界上最成功的投资者并没有像你想象的那样承担方向性风险，因为他们：a）专注于优质股票；b）在长期投资过程中控制风险；c）即使必须采取防御策略，也要不断采取进攻策略。团队鼓励大家也做到这三件事。
The world's most successful investors do not take on directional risk the way you might think, because they: a) focus on quality stocks; b) manage risk over the long term; and c) keep playing offence, even when they have to play defence. The team encourages you to do these three things too.
接下来是什么？
What's Next?
