SPCX · 投资备忘录 · Investment Memo
SpaceX于2026年6月以每股135美元完成IPO，股票于6月12日在纳斯达克挂牌交易，代码为SPCX。上市初期市场情绪极度亢奋，开盘价达160美元，并于6月16日冲上225.64美元的历史高点，随后股价大幅回落，7月下旬一度跌至113.50美元附近。这种"上市冲高、情绪退潮、再度筑底"的走势，在历史上的大型IPO中并不少见。
SpaceX completed its IPO in June 2026 at $135 per share and began trading on the Nasdaq on 12 June under the ticker SPCX. Sentiment in the early days was euphoric: the stock opened at $160 and surged to an all-time high of $225.64 on 16 June, before pulling back sharply to around $113.50 in late July. This pattern of "post-IPO spike, fading sentiment, then basing again" is not uncommon among large IPOs historically.
经历了夏季的深度回调后，SPCX在9月和10月逐步收复失地，目前股价运行在144至149美元区间。从基本面看，截至2026年6月30日的上半年，SpaceX营收达125.08亿美元，较2025年同期的81.38亿美元大幅增长，增幅超过五成。星链的用户扩张、发射业务的规模化，以及星舰测试的持续推进，共同构成了这家公司长期增长的核心引擎。
After a deep correction over the summer, SPCX gradually recovered lost ground in September and October and is currently trading in the $144 to $149 range. On the fundamentals, SpaceX generated revenue of $12.508 billion in the first half to 30 June 2026, up sharply from $8.138 billion in the same period of 2025, an increase of more than 50%. Starlink's subscriber growth, the scaling of the launch business and continued progress in Starship testing together form the core engines of the company's long-term growth.
SpaceX上季度资本支出为196亿美元。资本支出是指用于建设项目的资金，其中约84%用于人工智能计算。该公司表示，第四季度还将投入350亿至400亿美元。SpaceX公司目前拥有约900亿美元的现金和有价证券。别忘了，这笔支出正是该公司今年8月份发布首份上市财报后股价暴跌的原因。巨额资本支出吓坏了投资者，而禁售期也让所有人都担心会迎来一波内部人士抛售潮。三个月后，这些支出已经转化为收入和利润。
SpaceX's capital expenditure last quarter was $19.6 billion. Capital expenditure refers to money spent on building projects, and around 84% of it went to AI computing. The company said it will invest a further $35 billion to $40 billion in the fourth quarter. SpaceX currently holds around $90 billion in cash and marketable securities. Remember, this spending is exactly what caused the share price to plunge after the company released its first post-IPO earnings report in August this year. The huge capital expenditure scared investors, and the lock-up period had everyone worried about a wave of insider selling. Three months later, that spending has turned into revenue and profit.
至于解禁方面，这些业绩公布后，大约有13亿股内部人士持有的股票将符合出售条件。那些杞人忧天的人会焦躁不安。我建议你不要这样做……仅仅因为有人在拥挤的剧院里指出了出口标志，并不意味着电影即将开始时所有人都会逃之夭夭。此外，每一股新股都需要买家。
As for the lock-up expiry, around 1.3 billion insider-held shares will become eligible for sale following these results. The worriers will get nervous. I would suggest you don't... just because someone points out the exit sign in a crowded theatre doesn't mean everyone will run for the doors just as the film is about to start. Besides, every new share still needs a buyer.
SpaceX 和特斯拉合并
SpaceX and Tesla Merger
埃隆·马斯克直言不讳地表示，合并"是个好主意"，而且"很有价值"。应股东要求，两家公司现已成立由独立董事组成的特别委员会来探讨合并事宜。短短几分钟内，这便成了人们热议的话题。马斯克谨慎地表示，双方尚未达成任何协议，称其为"大功告成"未免有些夸大其词。任何交易最终都会惠及股东。按目前的估值计算，合并后的公司市值将达到3.6万亿美元左右。合并案已经从天方夜谭变成了非常现实的可能性。
Elon Musk said bluntly that a merger is "a good idea" and "very valuable". At shareholders' request, both companies have now set up special committees of independent directors to explore a merger. Within minutes, it became the talk of the market. Musk was careful to say that no agreement has been reached, and that calling it "a done deal" would be an overstatement. Any deal would ultimately benefit shareholders. At current valuations, the combined company would be worth around $3.6 trillion. A merger has gone from fantasy to a very real possibility.
第一个盈利季度
The First Profitable Quarter
市场此前预期SpaceX每股收益为0.13美元，但实际公布的每股收益为0.35美元，比预期高出约169%。这意味着净收入为44亿美元，收入为145.8亿美元，比去年增长了161%，远远超过了分析师此前预测的约127亿美元。一年前，该公司同期亏损11亿美元，上个季度亏损5.41亿美元，本季度盈利44亿美元。新的云服务交易、对Cursor的收购以及Grok的更广泛应用起到了关键作用。
The market had expected SpaceX to report earnings per share of $0.13, but actual earnings per share came in at $0.35, around 169% above expectations. This means net income of $4.4 billion on revenue of $14.58 billion, up 161% year on year and far ahead of analysts' forecast of around $12.7 billion. A year ago, the company lost $1.1 billion in the same period, and last quarter it lost $541 million. This quarter, it earned $4.4 billion. New cloud service deals, the acquisition of Cursor and the wider adoption of Grok played key roles.
Starlink新增收入52.5亿美元，增长69%，目前拥有1360万消费者用户，而三个月前这一数字仅为1200万。计算能力已扩展至1.7吉瓦，你可以把它想象成驱动所有人工智能的引擎室的规模，摩根大通认为到明年年底将达到10吉瓦。星舰的首次轨道飞行将26颗新一代星链V3卫星送入轨道，大约是猎鹰9号星链火箭发射运载量的10倍。
Starlink added revenue of $5.25 billion, up 69%, and now has 13.6 million consumer subscribers, compared with just 12 million three months ago. Computing capacity has expanded to 1.7 gigawatts. Think of it as the size of the engine room powering all of the AI, and JPMorgan expects it to reach 10 gigawatts by the end of next year. Starship's first orbital flight carried 26 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites into orbit, roughly 10 times the payload of a Falcon 9 Starlink launch.
华尔街的态度同样值得关注。在星舰第14次试飞成功后，分析师纷纷给出乐观评级，12个月目标价介于200至250美元之间。然而，股价短期内仍在关键价位附近反复拉锯，9月底卖空比例一度升至两周高位，150美元附近形成明显阻力。多空力量正在这一区域激烈角力，而真正决定下一段行情方向的，往往是那些在震荡中悄然建仓的资金。
Wall Street's stance is equally worth watching. After the successful 14th Starship test flight, analysts issued bullish ratings, with 12-month price targets ranging from $200 to $250. However, in the short term the stock continues to swing around key levels. Short interest rose to a two-week high in late September, and clear resistance has formed around $150. Bulls and bears are battling fiercely in this zone, and what usually decides the next move is the money quietly building positions during the volatility.
那么，在当前位置，SPCX究竟是追高的陷阱，还是中长期布局的良机？机构资金会在哪些价位悄然承接？如果市场再度回调，哪些区间才是真正值得分批进场的"黄金坑"？未来12至24个月，这只太空龙头股的基本目标与乐观目标又分别在哪里？
So at the current level, is SPCX a trap for chasing highs, or an opportunity for medium- to long-term positioning? At which levels will institutional money quietly step in? If the market pulls back again, which zones are the real "golden pits" worth scaling into? And over the next 12 to 24 months, where are the base and optimistic targets for this space-sector leader?
团队已完成综合评估最新市况，以下是最新后市操作策略：
The team has completed a comprehensive assessment of the latest market conditions. Below is our latest trading strategy:
