摩根大通TMT全球半导体行业研究报告 J.P. Morgan TMT Global Semiconductor Industry Research
摩根大通TMT（科技、媒体与电信）专门销售团队于2026年7月5日发布的全球半导体行业简报。
This global semiconductor industry brief was published on July 5, 2026, by J.P. Morgan's dedicated TMT (Technology, Media & Telecom) sales team.
核心宏观与市场背景
Core Macro and Market Backdrop
强劲但动荡的二季度：尽管面临逆风，费城半导体指数（SOX）在二季度上涨近88%，创成立以来最大季度涨幅。但进入三季度初，市场出现了预设的回调。
A strong but turbulent Q2: despite facing headwinds, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) rose nearly 88% in the second quarter, its largest quarterly gain on record. However, a pullback that had been anticipated has since emerged at the start of the third quarter.
期权与波动率信号：摩根大通衍生品交易团队指出，二季度股票和期权同时变贵且恐惧情绪上升。目前长期期权已计入大量AI乐观预期，显得昂贵；现金担保看跌期权（CSP）的波动率看起来更具吸引力。
Options and volatility signals: J.P. Morgan's derivatives trading team noted that both stocks and options became more expensive in Q2, alongside rising fear sentiment. Long-dated options currently appear expensive, having already priced in substantial AI optimism, while volatility on cash-secured puts (CSPs) looks more attractive.
衍生品主管近期改变了对科技股长期波动率的看法，建议做空波动率，并购买2个月看跌期权或卖出6个月看涨期权（针对AI瓶颈/受益标的如存储、光子学、半导体设备）以应对AI轮动需求。
The derivatives desk head has recently shifted his view on long-term tech volatility, recommending shorting volatility, and either buying 2-month puts or selling 6-month calls on AI bottleneck/beneficiary names such as memory, photonics, and semiconductor equipment, in order to position for AI rotation demand.
策略师指出，自去年9月以来半导体股票相对于大盘的持续优异表现似乎不可持续。除非AI货币化/营收改善，或超大规模云厂商资本支出削减，否则这种失衡将持续。
Strategists note that semiconductor stocks' sustained outperformance relative to the broader market since last September appears unsustainable. This imbalance is likely to persist unless AI monetization/revenue improves, or hyperscaler capex is cut back.
季节性与仓位管理：投资者普遍认为半导体基本面依然稳固，当前的波动是仓位和风险管理问题，而非结构性下行周期的开始。由于8月催化剂减少，许多投资者计划在财报季获利了结，并在9月会议季重启前重建仓位。
Seasonality and positioning: investors broadly believe semiconductor fundamentals remain solid, and that current volatility reflects positioning and risk-management issues rather than the start of a structural downturn. With fewer catalysts expected in August, many investors plan to take profits during earnings season and rebuild positions ahead of the September conference season.
以下是 JPMorgan 对一些公司的最新增减持评级。
Here are JPMorgan’s latest upgrades and downgrades for a number of companies.
