AVGO ·深度研究报· In-Depth Research Report告
AI基础设施的隐形霸主：$1620亿订单积压与VMware软件飞轮
The hidden king of AI infrastructure: $162 billion backlog and the VMware software flywheel
Q1 FY2026总营收$193亿，同比增长29%，创季度纪录；AI营收$84亿，同比增长106%，超自身指引；EPS $2.05，超预期9%；Q2总营收指引$220亿，同比增长47%；Q2 AI营收指引$107亿，同比增长140%并继续加速；AI订单积压$73亿，锁定约两季度100%能见度；CEO Hock Tan明确表示，2027年AI芯片营收有望超过$1000亿——今天白天股价约$312，宏观避险情绪将全球最重要的定制AI芯片平台压制在错杀区间：今晚财报已经彻底证伪所有“增速见顶”的叙事，建仓窗口正在今天打开。
Q1 FY2026 total revenue reached $19.3 billion, up 29% year-over-year and setting a quarterly record; AI revenue was $8.4 billion, up 106% year-over-year and above company guidance; EPS came in at $2.05, beating expectations by 9%; Q2 total revenue guidance is $22.0 billion, up 47% year-over-year; Q2 AI revenue guidance is $10.7 billion, up 140% year-over-year and still accelerating; AI backlog stands at $7.3 billion, locking in roughly two quarters of 100% visibility; CEO Hock Tan clearly stated that AI chip revenue could exceed $100 billion in 2027 — today, the stock traded around $312 during the day, with macro risk-off sentiment pushing the world’s most important custom AI chip platform into a mispricing zone: tonight’s earnings have completely disproved every narrative about growth peaking, and the entry window is opening today.
2026年3月4日，就在今晚美股收盘后，Broadcom发布Q1 FY2026财报。总营收$193亿，同比增长29%，创季度历史纪录，超出华尔街共识的$191.8亿。AI营收$84亿，同比增长106%，超出管理层自身指引的$82亿。EPS $2.05，超出预期的$1.88约9%。Q2总营收指引$220亿，同比增长47%；Q2 AI营收指引$107亿，同比增长140%——这是Broadcom AI营收增速连续加速的第十二个季度。CEO Hock Tan在财报电话会上宣布：“我们对2027年仅芯片AI营收超过$1000亿有清晰路径可见度，供应链已经落实到位。”
On March 4, 2026, just after the U.S. market closed tonight, Broadcom released its Q1 FY2026 earnings report. Total revenue was $19.3 billion, up 29% year-over-year, setting a quarterly record and beating Wall Street consensus of $19.18 billion. AI revenue was $8.4 billion, up 106% year-over-year and above management’s own guidance of $8.2 billion. EPS came in at $2.05, beating the $1.88 consensus by about 9%. Q2 total revenue guidance is $22.0 billion, up 47% year-over-year; Q2 AI revenue guidance is $10.7 billion, up 140% year-over-year — this marks the twelfth consecutive quarter of accelerating AI revenue growth for Broadcom. CEO Hock Tan stated on the earnings call: “We have clear visibility to over $100 billion of AI semiconductor revenue in 2027, and the supply chain is already secured.”
今天白天，股价在宏观避险情绪主导下收于约$312——中东地缘政治紧张与科技板块整体抛售，将一家AI营收连续十二季度增长的公司压制在年初至今约下跌9%的水平。随后今晚财报公布：AI营收$84亿超预期，Q2指引$107亿同比增长140%，Anthropic确认$210亿定制芯片订单（交付窗口为2026年底至2027年），OpenAI正式确认为Broadcom第六大定制AI芯片客户，Meta MTIA路线图“alive and well”，AI订单积压$73亿覆盖约两季度完整营收能见度。盘后AVGO上涨约4.75%至约$332。
During the day today, the stock closed around $312 under macro risk-off sentiment — Middle East geopolitical tension and broad technology-sector selling pushed a company with twelve straight quarters of AI revenue growth to a year-to-date decline of about 9%. Then tonight’s earnings arrived: AI revenue of $8.4 billion beat expectations, Q2 guidance of $10.7 billion implies 140% year-over-year growth, Anthropic confirmed a $21 billion custom chip order with deliveries from late 2026 into 2027, OpenAI was formally confirmed as Broadcom’s sixth custom AI chip customer, Meta’s MTIA roadmap was described as “alive and well,” and AI backlog of $7.3 billion covers roughly two full quarters of revenue visibility. In after-hours trading, AVGO rose about 4.75% to around $332.
48位华尔街分析师覆盖AVGO，48位全部给出买入或强力买入评级，零个卖出——这是全球大市值科技公司中极罕见的零卖出评级记录。财报前共识目标价约$454，最高目标价$480（Mizuho），最低目标价$335（DA Davidson）。今晚财报后，目标价上调潮即将启动。今天白天以约$312建仓，是在机构全面重估浪潮来临之前锁定仓位的窗口。
AVGO is covered by 48 Wall Street analysts, and all 48 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, with zero Sell ratings — an extremely rare zero-sell record among large-cap global technology companies. Before earnings, the consensus target price was about $454, with the highest target at $480 from Mizuho and the lowest at $335 from DA Davidson. After tonight’s earnings, a wave of upward target revisions is about to begin. Building a position around $312 during the day today meant locking in exposure before the institutional rerating wave fully arrives.
本报告将深入拆解Broadcom的四大核心投资逻辑、关键催化剂时间节点、华尔街多空双方最新目标价对比，以及我们独立得出的12至24个月目标价区间——数字或许会让你意外。
This report will break down Broadcom’s four core investment pillars, the key catalyst timeline, the latest Wall Street bullish and bearish target comparisons, and our independently derived 12- to 24-month target range — and the numbers may surprise you.
