市场简报 Market Brief
2025年12月29日 / Dec 29, 2025
你好，希望你今天一切都好。
Hello, hope you're having a great day.
回顾过去这段时间，团队一次又一次地在市场主流认知形成之前，提前抓住了关键的投资主题——从英伟达转型AI、苹果的生态系统布局、特斯拉的估值重塑、国防板块的崛起、CrowdStrike的修复行情，再到Palantir的又一轮强势表现。
Looking back over the past period, the team has repeatedly identified key investment themes ahead of mainstream market recognition — from Nvidia's AI transformation and Apple's ecosystem positioning, to Tesla's valuation reset, the defence sector's resurgence, CrowdStrike's recovery, and Palantir's latest strong run.
站在2026年的门槛上，团队相信我们正处于另一轮更大规模盈利扩张的起点。接下来这一轮，可能会让此前的一切看起来只是热身。
Standing at the threshold of 2026, the team believes we are at the starting point of another — and larger — wave of earnings expansion. What comes next may well make everything that preceded it look like a warm-up.
市场接下来怎么走？
Where Does the Market Go From Here?
今天的行情未能突破7000点，激进的短线交易者从开盘就持续施压。不过值得注意的是，中午前后以及下午两点半前后，确实出现了有质量的承接——这是市场内部结构依然健康的信号。
Today's session failed to break through 7,000, with aggressive short-term traders applying pressure from the open. Notably, however, meaningful buying support emerged around midday and again around 2:30 in the afternoon — a signal that the market's internal structure remains healthy.
展望接下来的走势，结构依然向好。企业盈利的韧性超出预期，流动性在悄然改善，资金在板块间轮动而非撤离。美联储的鸽派倾向正在积聚，2026年1月中旬四季度财报季启动后，市场的注意力将从宏观噪音重新回归到企业基本面——这是个好消息。
The structural outlook remains constructive. Corporate earnings resilience has exceeded expectations, liquidity is quietly improving, and capital is rotating between sectors rather than exiting the market. The Federal Reserve's dovish lean is building, and when the fourth-quarter earnings season begins in mid-January 2026, market attention will shift back from macro noise to corporate fundamentals — a welcome development.
团队预计上半年仍会有一定震荡，但下半年将明显更强。
The team expects continued volatility in the first half of the year, with the second half shaping up to be considerably stronger.
历史一再告诉我们，几乎从来没有哪个时刻"感觉上"是投资的好时机。但历史同样告诉我们，对于持有优质公司的长期投资者而言，几乎任何时候都是合适的时机。
History has repeatedly shown that almost no moment ever feels like the right time to invest. Yet that same history tells us that for long-term investors holding high-quality companies, almost any moment is in fact the right time.
接下来，我们将分享多个具体的布局机会与操作策略——涵盖低波动底仓配置、重大战略并购的深层逻辑，以及当前回调中值得关注的长期标的。
What follows covers several specific positioning opportunities and actionable strategies — including low-volatility core allocation, the deeper rationale behind a major strategic acquisition, and long-term names worth accumulating during current pullbacks.
