市场简报 Market Brief

2026年2月2日 / Feb 2, 2026

你好，希望你今天一切都好。

Hello, hope you're having a great day.

上周绝对是令人难忘的一周。周一罗素2000领跌，周二美元指数遭受重创，周三标普500失守，周四轮到纳斯达克，周五黄金和白银一起跳水。短期的不安是完全可以理解的。

Last week was nothing short of memorable. The Russell 2000 led the decline on Monday, the Dollar Index took a heavy blow on Tuesday, the S&P 500 gave way on Wednesday, the Nasdaq followed on Thursday, and gold and silver both sold off on Friday. Some short-term unease is entirely understandable.

但这里有一个关键事实：三大股指1月份全部收涨。标普500上涨1.4%，道琼斯上涨1.7%，纳斯达克上涨1%，就连以波动性著称的罗素2000也涨超5%。

But here is a critical reference point: all three major indices closed January in positive territory. The S&P 500 gained 1.4%, the Dow Jones rose 1.7%, the Nasdaq added 1%, and even the volatility-prone Russell 2000 climbed more than 5%.

更重要的是，目前已有33%的标普500成分股发布业绩，其中65%营收超预期，75%每股收益超预期。综合盈利增长率已从8.8%升至11.98%，标普500的综合净利润率达到13.2%，是FactSet自2009年开始记录这一指标以来的历史最高水平。如果这个势头维持下去——团队判断会的——这将是连续第五个季度实现两位数盈利增长。

More significantly, 33% of S&P 500 constituents have now reported results, with 65% beating revenue expectations and 75% exceeding earnings per share forecasts. The blended earnings growth rate has risen from 8.8% to 11.98%, and the S&P 500's blended net profit margin has reached 13.2% — the highest level recorded by FactSet since it began tracking this metric in 2009. If this trajectory holds — and the team's view is that it will — this will mark five consecutive quarters of double-digit earnings growth.

理解市场抛售的真实机制：流动性紧缩与VaR

Understanding the Real Mechanics of Market Selloffs: Liquidity Tightening and VaR

这背后有一个非常简单的等式：流动性紧缩加上VaR限制，等于被迫通过出售资产来降低风险。

The equation is straightforward: liquidity tightening plus VaR constraints equals forced asset sales to reduce risk exposure.

当市场状况收紧时，流动性紧缩通常就会浮现——购买兴趣降低、订单簿变薄，或者仅仅是流出资产的资金多于流入的资金。媒体通常把美联储政策变化、利率波动、地缘政治紧张、关税和宏观经济形势列为原因。但这些因素实际上只是放大器，而不是根本原因。

Liquidity tightening typically surfaces when market conditions contract — reduced buying interest, thinner order books, or simply more capital flowing out of assets than into them. Media coverage routinely cites Federal Reserve policy shifts, rate volatility, geopolitical tension, tariffs, and macroeconomic conditions as the causes. These factors are amplifiers, not root causes.

VaR代表风险价值，是幕后一个至关重要的动态层面。贝莱德、富达、先锋、城堡等大型机构都使用VaR模型作为概率风险控制工具，将潜在损失限制在预设的特定置信水平之内。当科技股、比特币、黄金、白银等波动性资产的VaR读数飙升、突破内部风险阈值时，这些机构会立即开始抛售——往往采取激进策略——目的是把风险敞口压回到合规范围之内。

VaR — Value at Risk — is a critical dynamic operating behind the scenes. Major institutions including BlackRock, Fidelity, Vanguard, and Citadel use VaR models as probabilistic risk management tools, capping potential losses within preset confidence levels. When VaR readings on volatile assets such as technology stocks, Bitcoin, gold, and silver spike beyond internal risk thresholds, these institutions begin selling immediately — often aggressively — with the sole aim of bringing exposure back within acceptable bounds.

这就导致了所谓的"强制去风险化"——大规模抛售导致更多股票涌入市场，供应骤增，反过来又推高波动率，进一步推高VaR读数，触发更多强制抛售，形成恶性循环。这整个过程与我们持有的优质公司的基本面毫无关系。

This produces what is known as forced de-risking — large-scale selling floods the market with supply, which pushes volatility higher, which elevates VaR readings further, which triggers more forced selling, creating a self-reinforcing cycle. None of this has any connection to the fundamentals of the high-quality companies held in the portfolio.

ETF会加剧这个问题——它们必须即时进行再平衡，以反映其所持基础股票的价格变动。相比之下，共同基金每天只定价一次，这是本质上的区别。个股期货同样存在类似问题，背后隐藏着额外的杠杆和波动性。

ETFs amplify this problem — they must rebalance in real time to reflect price movements in their underlying holdings. Mutual funds, by contrast, price only once per day — a structurally significant difference. Single-stock futures carry similar complications, with additional leverage and volatility embedded beneath the surface.

上周的大规模抛售，不是因为基本面在恶化，也不是因为AI存在泡沫，更不是因为美联储主席换届。这只不过是经典的流动性加风险控制动态在大规模上演，没有任何神秘之处。对于有准备的投资者而言，这是一个绝佳的机会，去收购那些并非出于自身过错而被打折出售的优质公司股份。

Last week's selloff was not caused by deteriorating fundamentals, an AI bubble, or the Federal Reserve Chair transition. It was classic liquidity and risk-control dynamics playing out at scale — nothing more. For prepared investors, it represented an excellent opportunity to acquire shares in high-quality companies being sold at a discount through no fault of their own.

这一切早在预料之中

All of This Was Anticipated

许多人将上周的抛售描述为黑天鹅事件，完全无法预测。事实上，这与团队此前在月度报告中已经具体描述的情景高度吻合：

Many have described last week's selloff as a black swan event, entirely unpredictable. In reality, it aligns closely with what had already been specifically outlined in the team's monthly report:

市场将在上半年出现大幅波动，短期程序化交易者与长期投资者之间的博弈仍在持续；盈利持续加速增长，与此同时波动性也在持续加速增长；价格发现不再等待共识，而是持续不断地发生，往往伴随着剧烈波动，然后继续前进；黄金和白银受市场动能驱动、机构主导，当大户轮动抛售时，金价可能会在毫无预警的情况下迅速下跌，而白银的下跌波动性历史上远大于黄金。

Significant market volatility was expected in the first half of the year as the battle between short-term algorithmic traders and long-term investors continued; earnings growth acceleration and volatility acceleration were both forecast to run in parallel; price discovery was expected to occur continuously rather than waiting for consensus, often accompanied by sharp moves before pressing on; and gold and silver were identified as momentum and institution-driven trades — when large players rotate out, prices can fall rapidly without warning, with silver historically showing far greater downside volatility than gold.

我们刻意聚焦于最优质的公司，原因有两个：一是它们具有最高的增长和收入潜力；二是在市场动荡的时刻，它们往往跌幅较小、最先企稳、恢复得最快。

The deliberate focus on the highest-quality companies serves two purposes: they offer the greatest growth and income potential, and during periods of market turbulence they tend to fall less, stabilise first, and recover fastest.

接下来，我们将分享Palantir财报前的最新研判，以及AMD目标价的正式调整与操作依据。

What follows covers the team's latest assessment ahead of Palantir's earnings release, along with a formal target price revision for AMD and the rationale behind it.