市场简报。Market Brief

2026年3月2日 / Mar 2, 2026

你好，希望你今天一切都好。

Hello, hope you're having a great day.

在撰写这篇简报的时候，市场在低开之后已经转为上涨。这充分说明了真正聪明的投资者清楚地知道自己应该做什么。

At the time of writing, markets have turned higher after opening lower. This speaks directly to what genuinely informed investors know they should be doing right now.

在这个行业有一个规律从未改变过：最有利可图的做法永远是"在炮声响起时买入，在号角响起时卖出"。

One pattern in this industry has never changed: the most profitable approach has always been to buy when the cannons fire and sell when the trumpets sound.

历史数据清楚地印证了这一点。以下是有记录以来重大地缘政治冲突对市场的实际影响：

The historical data makes this clear. The following is the actual market impact of major recorded geopolitical conflicts:

图表不会说谎。市场从未有过一次在战争相关下跌后未能复苏的先例。历史平均复苏幅度是27%。一切的关键在于冲突是否能够保持局部化。如果未来几周局势确实如此，市场可能会很快消化适应，买家将迅速回归。

Charts do not lie. There is no recorded instance of a market failing to recover following a war-related decline. The historical average recovery is 27%. The critical variable is whether the conflict remains localised. If it does over the coming weeks, the market is likely to digest and adapt quickly, with buyers returning swiftly.

我们早就预料到了这一切

All of This Was Anticipated

这或许是有记录以来最容易被预判的冲突。团队早在很久之前就已经做好了准备。国防股依然是清晰的逻辑选择。过去一年，洛克希德·马丁的回报率达到50.37%，同期标普500约为19.06%。雷神的回报率同样高达60.14%。

This may be the most predictable conflict on record. The team had positioned well in advance. Defence stocks remain the clear logical choice. Over the past year, Lockheed Martin has delivered a return of 50.37%, compared to approximately 19.06% for the S&P 500. Raytheon has delivered an equally strong 60.14%.

接下来，我们将分享具体的操作建议——包括现有仓位的调整方向，以及本周值得重点关注的三份财报和一个正在浮出水面的市场结构性问题。

What follows covers specific actionable recommendations — including how to reposition existing holdings, three earnings reports worth close attention this week, and a structural market issue that is finally coming to the surface.