市场简报 Market Brief

2026年3月31日 / Mar 31, 2026

你好，希望你今天一切都好。

Hello, hope you're having a great day.

如果你一直没有趁着抛售潮买入，那你就是在自欺欺人。

If you have not been buying into this selloff, you are deceiving yourself.

获得利润最可靠的方法是等到有人把钱放在房间角落里……然后走过去把它捡起来。团队认为我们已经到达那个阶段了。许多优秀的公司都遭受重创、被打垮，很可能有很多世代财富就静静地躺在那里，等着你走过去把它捡起来。

The most reliable path to profit is to wait until someone leaves money in the corner of the room — and then walk over and pick it up. The team believes we have arrived at that stage. Many outstanding companies have been severely beaten down, and there is likely generational wealth sitting quietly in the corner, waiting to be claimed.

历史是这么说的：

History says this:

抛售是正常的，并非罕见。自1980年以来，标普500指数年内平均跌幅约为14%，但在46年中，仍有35年（即76%）最终收涨。

Selloffs are normal, not exceptional. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has experienced an average intra-year decline of approximately 14%, yet in 35 of those 46 years — 76% of the time — the index finished the year higher.

市场回调通常比人们想象的要短。回顾战后历史，市场回调平均跌幅为13.5%，从峰值到谷底持续约4.3个月，而从谷底恢复到先前水平则大约需要3.1个月。

Corrections are typically shorter than people expect. Across post-war history, the average market correction has involved a decline of 13.5%, lasting approximately 4.3 months from peak to trough, with recovery to prior levels taking approximately 3.1 months.

股市涨幅最大的日子往往出现在市场恐慌情绪最强烈的时候。大约76%的股市最佳表现都发生在熊市期间或新一轮牛市开始后的头两个月。

The market's best days almost always occur when panic is at its most intense. Approximately 76% of the market's strongest single-day performances happen either during bear markets or within the first two months of a new bull market.

极度悲观情绪之后往往伴随着强劲的后续回报。摩根大通的数据显示，在市场情绪触底之后，标普500指数随后12个月的平均回报率为+24.1%，而市场情绪触顶之后的平均回报率仅为+3.9%。

Extreme pessimism has historically been followed by strong subsequent returns. JPMorgan data shows that following a trough in market sentiment, the S&P 500's average return over the subsequent 12 months has been +24.1%, compared to just +3.9% following a sentiment peak.

接下来，还有两个具体的数据点——它们清楚地说明了为什么此刻留在场内，是任何投资者能做出的最重要的决定之一。

What follows presents two specific data points that make clear why staying invested right now is one of the most important decisions any investor can make.

如果你在二十年前投资了1000美元购买标普500指数，并且错过了这段时间里表现最好的50天——仅仅0.4%——结果会是什么？

If you had invested $1,000 in the S&P 500 twenty years ago, and missed only the 50 best-performing days over that entire period — just 0.4% of all trading days — what would happen?

你和你的投资组合将会错失原本应该属于你的92%的利润。92%。

You and your portfolio would have forfeited 92% of the returns that would otherwise have been yours. 92%.

市场上涨的日子比下跌的日子多得多。人们往往会因为害怕和慌乱而忘记这一点。

The market records more up days than down days — by a significant margin. People forget this in moments of fear and panic.

下沉气流越大，前方上升空间就越大。

The greater the downdraft, the greater the upside that follows.

无论你能负担多少，都应该尽可能多地买入——哪怕一次只买一股。那是你唯一能负担得起的，或者说是你内心认为你能花的金额。这同样有效，同样重要。

Buy as much as you can afford — even if that means one share at a time. Whatever you can genuinely commit, that amount is both valid and significant. It all compounds.

感谢你成为Wealth Club的一员！

Thank you for being a member of Wealth Club!

祝你投资顺遂，生活丰盛。

Wishing you prosperous investments and an abundant life.

财富俱乐部 Wealth Club