摩根大通最新发布的《流量与流动性》报告 According to J.P. Morgan's latest Flows & Liquidity report
你好，希望你今天一切都好。
Hello, hope you're having a great day.
摩根大通最新发布的《流量与流动性》报告，从全球资金流向、市场仓位和流动性的角度分析市场，认为AI交易正在展开，市场开始进入产业链内部轮动阶段。过去一年，半导体、HBM和存储相关公司的股价持续跑赢Meta、微软、谷歌等云厂商。团队观点认为，随着AI商业化不断推进，云厂商的盈利能力可能逐渐改善，股价有机会追上硬件板块；市场目前也在担心另一种情况——如果云厂商未来的盈利跟不上资本开支，可能会因此放缓AI投资节奏，进而影响GPU、HBM等硬件需求。摩根大通为此追踪了空头仓位、GPU租赁价格、Token价格等多项指标，显示市场确实开始讨论这一风险，但现阶段还没有足够证据证明AI产业已经出现拐点。同时，美国流动性仍保持改善趋势，预计2026年M2将增加约1.8万亿美元，银行放贷意愿增强，美联储资产负债表也重新小幅扩张。在没有重大黑天鹅事件的情况下，充盈的流动性仍有望继续支撑美股，因此摩根大通整体观点依然乐观。
According to J.P. Morgan's latest Flows & Liquidity report, which analyzes markets from the perspective of global capital flows, positioning, and liquidity, the AI trade is unfolding and the market is entering a phase of rotation within the supply chain. Over the past year, semiconductor, HBM, and memory-related companies have consistently outperformed cloud providers such as Meta, Microsoft, and Google. The team's view is that as AI commercialization progresses, cloud providers' profitability may gradually improve, allowing their share prices to catch up with the hardware sector. The market is also concerned about another scenario — if cloud providers' future earnings fail to keep pace with capital expenditure, this could slow the pace of AI investment, which in turn would affect demand for hardware such as GPUs and HBM. J.P. Morgan has been tracking short positioning, GPU rental prices, and token pricing among other indicators, and these show the market is indeed beginning to discuss this risk, though there isn't yet sufficient evidence that an inflection point has occurred in the AI industry. Meanwhile, U.S. liquidity conditions continue to improve, with M2 expected to grow by roughly $1.8 trillion in 2026, bank lending appetite strengthening, and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet modestly expanding again. Barring a major black swan event, ample liquidity is expected to continue supporting U.S. equities, and J.P. Morgan's overall view remains constructive.
$ASTS 与Vodafone Ireland及爱尔兰政府展开的卫星紧急通讯测试，展现了AST SpaceMobile的实力。技术层面已有实测证据，信噪比表现优秀，能够传输高速数据；理论层面支持高容量运行，可运行高阶调变方式；应用层面则具备极高价值，涵盖紧急服务、偏远地区连网以及未来各类宽频需求。
$ASTS's satellite emergency communications test with Vodafone Ireland and the Irish government demonstrates AST SpaceMobile's capability. On the technical side, real-world testing has already shown strong signal quality capable of transmitting high-speed data. On the theoretical side, the system supports high-capacity operation with advanced modulation schemes. On the application side, the value is substantial, spanning emergency services, remote-area connectivity, and future broadband demand of all kinds.
$ASTS与日本电信巨头乐天（Rakuten）成立的合资公司，也有较高机会拿下日本国家主导的太空通信项目。团队关注此事的原因在于，AST SpaceMobile并不打算成为另一个Starlink的复制版——不需要额外硬件，不需要额外终端，普通智能手机即可直接连接卫星，获得4G和5G网络覆盖。如果这项技术能够大规模应用，将有机会改变网络连接的整体格局，偏远地区、信号盲区、紧急覆盖、全球移动接入等需求，都有机会转化为真实市场。
$ASTS's joint venture with Japanese telecom giant Rakuten also has a strong chance of securing Japan's nationally led satellite communications project. The team's interest stems from the fact that AST SpaceMobile isn't aiming to become another Starlink clone — no additional hardware, no additional terminals required; an ordinary smartphone can connect directly to satellites for 4G and 5G coverage. If this technology achieves large-scale deployment, it could reshape the connectivity landscape altogether, turning demand from remote areas, signal-dead zones, emergency coverage, and global mobile access into genuine addressable markets.
