特朗普访华：9年来首次，意义远超外交礼节 Trump's Beijing Visit: The First in Nine Years, and Far More Than a Diplomatic Formality
1 — 通胀数据低于此前最悲观的预期
4月份CPI报告已于美东时间上午8:30正式公布。年化涨幅为3.7%，高于3月份的3.3%，核心CPI为2.7%。数字本身几乎无关紧要。真正值得关注的问题是：核心通胀是否会逐渐渗透进更广泛的资产组合。经济学家已经开始警告二阶效应的传导链条：运输成本率先上涨，随后是食品，最后是其他商品全线跟进。这一次，没有什么出乎意料的。真正的挑战在于美联储的僵持态度。现阶段建议重点关注10年期美债收益率的走势，而非新闻标题。
1 — Inflation Data Comes in Below the Most Pessimistic Expectations
The April CPI report was released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The annualised increase came in at 3.7%, above March's 3.3%, with core CPI at 2.7%. The numbers themselves are almost beside the point. The real question is whether core inflation will gradually seep into a broader range of assets. Economists have begun warning of a second-order transmission effect: transportation costs rise first, followed by food, and eventually all other goods. None of this should come as a surprise. The real challenge lies in the Federal Reserve's current impasse. At this stage, the 10-year Treasury yield deserves far more attention than any headline number.
2 — 马斯克诉奥特曼：这场审判的焦点始终是AI开发的控制权
微软首席执行官萨蒂亚·纳德拉周一出庭作证，成为三周内第三位在此案中出庭的科技亿万富翁。一封由他本人撰写的内部邮件显示，在微软准备向OpenAI追加100亿美元投资之际，纳德拉曾担忧微软将成为"下一个IBM"。奥特曼本周也将出庭作证。别管法律上的争论。微软当年130亿美元的投资，如今估值约为2,280亿美元——如果属实，这或许是iPhone问世以来最赚钱的一笔科技押注。
2 — Musk v. Altman: This Trial Has Always Been About Who Controls AI Development
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella testified on Monday, becoming the third tech billionaire to take the stand in this case within three weeks. An internal email written by Nadella himself revealed that he had expressed concern about Microsoft becoming "the next IBM" at the very moment it was preparing to commit an additional $10 billion to OpenAI. Altman is also scheduled to testify this week. Set the legal arguments aside. Microsoft's $13 billion investment is now valued at approximately $228 billion — if accurate, this may be the most profitable technology investment since the iPhone.
3 — 能源板块：没人愿意谈，但每个人都在承受
本周早些时候，布伦特原油价格一度触及每桶114美元，创下2026年以来最高收盘价，随后因停火前景渺茫以及伊朗在海湾地区再度发动袭击而有所回落。荷兰国际集团（ING）已将布伦特原油第二季度均价预测上调至104美元/桶，并预计随着霍尔木兹海峡油气田缓慢复苏，第四季度价格将持续维持高位。局势拖延的时间越长，通胀的压力就越难消散，美联储的政策空间也将进一步收窄。
3 — Energy: Nobody Wants to Talk About It, But Everyone Is Feeling It
Earlier this week, Brent crude briefly touched $114 per barrel, its highest closing level of 2026, before pulling back as ceasefire prospects faded and Iran launched fresh attacks in the Gulf region. ING has revised its base-case forecast for Brent crude to an average of $104 per barrel for the second quarter, and expects prices to remain elevated through the fourth quarter as oil and gas fields in the Strait of Hormuz recover only gradually. The longer this situation persists, the harder it becomes to ease inflation, and the narrower the Federal Reserve's policy room grows.
4 — 特朗普访华：9年来首次，意义远超外交礼节
特朗普将于本周抵达北京，对中国国家主席习近平进行国事访问，这是近9年来美国总统首次访华。随行的16位首席执行官包括埃隆·马斯克、蒂姆·库克和拉里·芬克，议程涵盖贸易、人工智能、出口管制、台湾问题以及伊朗战争。当前的中美关系，更接近一场全球规模的"胆小鬼游戏"——谁先眨眼，谁就输了。双方同时面临价值6,000亿美元的贸易关系、稀土、半导体以及伊朗问题的交织压力。中国寻求的是可预测性，美国则希望中国在伊朗问题上给予支持。双方都无法全身而退。
4 — Trump's Beijing Visit: The First in Nine Years, and Far More Than a Diplomatic Formality
President Trump is due to arrive in Beijing this week for a state visit with President Xi Jinping — the first visit by a sitting U.S. president to China in nearly nine years. The 16 CEOs accompanying him include Elon Musk, Tim Cook, and Larry Fink, with the agenda spanning trade, artificial intelligence, export controls, Taiwan, and the war involving Iran. The current state of U.S.-China relations resembles nothing so much as a global-scale game of chicken — whoever blinks first loses. Both sides are simultaneously navigating $600 billion in trade, rare earth dependencies, semiconductors, and the Iran situation. China wants predictability; the United States wants China's support on Iran. Neither side can walk away clean.
5 — 全球最聪明的资金刚刚完成十多年来在亚洲最大规模的单周买入
截至5月7日当周，全球对冲基金推动韩国、日本和台湾股市录得十多年来最大单周净买入，对这三个市场的净敞口也达到摩根士丹利自2010年开始追踪该数据以来的历史最高水平。这些基金的买入并非源于对某个市场的情怀，而是因为整条人工智能供应链贯穿这一地区。台积电制造芯片，三星和SK海力士提供内存，东京电子和信越化学生产芯片厂所需的设备与材料。这还不包括供应商网络中更深层、鲜少被市场关注的环节。市场正在发生一些值得认真对待的结构性变化，能源、人工智能供应链、中美谈判三条主线同步演进，历史上每一次类似的交汇时刻，都曾产生深远影响。
5 — The World's Smartest Capital Just Made Its Largest Single-Week Bet on Asia in Over a Decade
In the week ending May 7, global hedge funds drove the largest single-week net purchases in Korea, Japan, and Taiwan in over a decade, with net exposure to all three markets reaching the highest level Morgan Stanley has recorded since it began tracking the data in 2010. These funds are not buying out of affection for any particular market. The entire artificial intelligence supply chain runs through this region. TSMC manufactures the chips. Samsung and SK Hynix supply the memory. Tokyo Electron and Shin-Etsu Chemical produce the equipment and materials that keep fabs running. And that is before counting the deeper layers of the supplier network that most investors have never examined. Something structurally significant is unfolding across markets — energy, the AI supply chain, and U.S.-China negotiations are all developing simultaneously, and historically, every comparable convergence of these forces has had lasting consequences.
投资的关键在于专注，而非噪音。计划，执行，重复。
The key to investing well is focus, not noise. Plan. Execute. Repeat.
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Thank you for being a member of Wealth Club!
祝你投资顺遂。
Wishing you prosperous investments.
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