AMZN · 深度研究报告 · In-Depth Research Report
AWS十三季度最快增速：AI基础设施军备竞赛中的最大受益者
AWS's Fastest Growth in Thirteen Quarters: The Biggest Beneficiary in the AI Infrastructure Arms Race
FY2025全年营收$7169亿同比增长12%首次超越沃尔玛成为全球营收最高公司、Q4营收$2134亿同比增长14%超预期、AWS营收$356亿同比增长24%创13季度最快增速、广告营收$213亿同比增长22%、AWS订单积压$2440亿同比增长40%季度环比增长22%创历史最大单季积压、Trainium与Graviton自研芯片年化营收超$100亿同比三位数增长——$2000亿资本开支指引引发恐慌性抛售将股价从历史高点$258压至约$196回落约24%：AWS订单积压代表的是已签约尚未认列的$2440亿未来现金流，市场对短期自由现金流的恐惧正在折价出售全球AI云端计算时代最重要的基础设施平台，今天是最清晰的错杀入场窗口
FY2025 full-year revenue of $716.9 billion up 12% YoY, surpassing Walmart for the first time to become the world's highest-revenue company; Q4 revenue of $213.4 billion up 14% YoY beating expectations; AWS revenue of $35.6 billion up 24% YoY marking its fastest growth in 13 quarters; advertising revenue of $21.3 billion up 22% YoY; AWS backlog of $244 billion up 40% YoY and up 22% QoQ marking the largest single-quarter backlog in history; in-house Trainium and Graviton chips achieved annualized revenue exceeding $10 billion with triple-digit YoY growth — $200 billion capital expenditure guidance triggered panic selling, suppressing the stock price from a historical high of $258 to approximately $196, a pullback of about 24%: AWS backlog represents $244 billion in contracted but unrecognized future cash flow; the market's fear of short-term free cash flow is selling the most important infrastructure platform of the global AI cloud computing era at a discount; today is the clearest window for entry on mispricing
1994年，杰夫·贝索斯在车库里用折叠桌架起了一家网络书店。
In 1994, Jeff Bezos set up an online bookstore in a garage using a folding table.
三十二年后，他的继承者安迪·贾西在2026年2月5日的财报电话会上宣告：Amazon刚刚超越沃尔玛，成为人类历史上第一家以年度营收口径超越零售业传统霸主的科技公司——全年营收$7169亿，超越沃尔玛$6480亿。
Thirty-two years later, his successor Andy Jassy announced at the earnings call on February 5, 2026: Amazon has just surpassed Walmart, becoming the first tech company in human history to overtake the traditional retail hegemon in terms of annual revenue — with full-year revenue of $716.9 billion, surpassing Walmart's $648 billion.
数字清晰而令人震撼：Q4营收$2134亿，同比增长14%，超华尔街LSEG共识预期$2113亿；AWS营收$356亿，同比增长24%，超预期$349亿，是AWS近13个季度最快增速，年化营收运行率达$1420亿；广告营收$213亿，同比增长22%，超预期；Q4运营利润$250亿，运营利润率11.7%；AWS运营利润$125亿，运营利润率35%；AWS订单积压$2440亿，同比增长40%，季度环比增长22%，是AWS历史上最大单季积压金额；FY2025全年运营现金流$1395亿，同比增长20%；自有AI芯片Graviton与Trainium年化营收超过$100亿，同比三位数增长。
The numbers are clear and shocking: Q4 revenue was $213.4 billion, up 14% YoY, exceeding the Wall Street LSEG consensus expectation of $211.3 billion; AWS revenue was $35.6 billion, up 24% YoY, exceeding expectations of $34.9 billion, marking AWS's fastest growth in nearly 13 quarters with an annualized revenue run rate of $142 billion; advertising revenue was $21.3 billion, up 22% YoY, exceeding expectations; Q4 operating profit was $25 billion, with an operating margin of 11.7%; AWS operating profit was $12.5 billion, with an operating margin of 35%; AWS backlog reached $244 billion, up 40% YoY and 22% QoQ, the largest single-quarter backlog in AWS history; FY2025 full-year operating cash flow was $139.5 billion, up 20% YoY; in-house AI chips Graviton and Trainium surpassed $10 billion in annualized revenue with triple-digit YoY growth.
然后，管理层给出了今年最受争议的一个数字：2026年资本开支约$2000亿，较2025年的$1318亿增长约52%，比华尔街此前预期$1500亿高出约$500亿——市场盘后重挫超过10%。
Then, management provided the most controversial figure of the year: 2026 capital expenditure of approximately $200 billion, an increase of about 52% from $131.8 billion in 2025, and about $50 billion higher than Wall Street's previous expectation of $150 billion — the market slumped more than 10% after-hours.
今天（2026年2月17日）的股价：约$196，较2025年11月历史高点$258回落约24%。
Today's (February 17, 2026) stock price: approximately $196, a pullback of about 24% from the historical high of $258 in November 2025.
市场在恐惧什么？$2000亿资本开支与自由现金流从上年$382亿暴跌至$112亿——“烧钱机器”的担忧主导了情绪。
What is the market fearing? The $2000 billion capital expenditure and the free cash flow plunging from $38.2 billion the previous year to $11.2 billion — concerns about a "cash-burning machine" dominated the sentiment.
但这种担忧忽略了一个核心逻辑：AWS订单积压$2440亿同比增长40%，意味着Amazon已经看到了足以支撑$2000亿投入的客户需求可见度。
But this concern ignores a core logic: AWS backlog grew 40% YoY to $244 billion, meaning Amazon has already seen customer demand visibility sufficient to support the $200 billion investment.
贾西在财报电话会上明确表示：“我们正在以能多快安装就多快变现产能的速度运营。”$2000亿的资本开支，是需求已经在那里、产能是唯一瓶颈的最直接战略回应。
Jassy clearly stated in the earnings call: "We are operating at a speed of monetizing capacity as fast as we can install it." The $200 billion capital expenditure is the most direct strategic response to the fact that demand is already there and capacity is the only bottleneck.
本报告将深入拆解Amazon的四大核心投资逻辑、关键催化剂时间节点、华尔街多空双方最新目标价对比，以及我们独立得出的12至24个月目标价区间——数字或许会让你意外。
This report will deeply dismantle Amazon's four core investment logics, key catalyst time nodes, latest target price comparisons between Wall Street bulls and bears, and our independently derived 12 to 24-month target price range — the numbers might surprise you.
