ASTS · 深度研究报告 · In-Depth Research Report
Q4营收$5430万同比增长2731%超预期38%、全年2025营收$7090万达指引上限、全球超50家MNO合作伙伴覆盖近30亿潜在用户、$12亿合同收入承诺已锁定、$39亿流动性支撑全年发射计划、BlueBird 6创史上最大商业通讯阵列部署纪录——今天的约$76，是参与全球唯一太空直连宽带平台从「建造公司」向「营收公司」历史性转型最关键的建仓节点
Q4 revenue of $54.3 million grew 2,731% year-over-year and beat expectations by approximately 38%; full-year 2025 revenue of $70.9 million reached the upper end of guidance; global partnerships with more than 50 MNO partners covering nearly 3 billion potential users; over $1.2 billion in contracted revenue commitments locked in; $3.9 billion in liquidity supporting the full-year launch plan; BlueBird 6 set the record for the largest commercial communications array ever deployed — today's price of approximately $76 is the most critical entry node for participating in the historic transformation of the world's only space direct-to-device broadband platform from a "construction company" to a "revenue company"
2026年3月2日。AST SpaceMobile发布Q4 2025业绩更新。Q4营收$5430万，同比增长2731%，超华尔街共识预期$3950万约38%。全年2025营收$7090万，达管理层指引上限。CEO Abel Avellan在财报电话会上表示：「2025年是我们激活营收引擎的一年，我们不再是一家零营收的公司。」
On March 2, 2026, AST SpaceMobile released its Q4 2025 financial update. Q4 revenue of $54.3 million grew 2,731% year-over-year and beat Wall Street consensus expectations of $39.5 million by approximately 38%. Full-year 2025 revenue of $70.9 million reached the upper end of management guidance. CEO Abel Avellan stated on the earnings call: "2025 was the year we activated our revenue engine. We are no longer a zero-revenue company."
然而，推动AST SpaceMobile向2027年接近$10亿营收目标迈进的最重要催化剂，在今天都还没有发生：BlueBird 7预计3月发射，此后每一至两个月一次的发射节奏将持续全年；45至60颗Block 2 BlueBird卫星的年末部署目标尚未达成；AT&T、Verizon、Vodafone等MNO合作伙伴的正式商业服务尚未向终端用户启动；2026年全年营收指引$1.5亿至$2亿，是2025年的逾两倍，但上半年营收仍主要来自网关硬件交付，真正的服务订阅营收将在下半年随星座规模扩张而启动。最大的催化剂，都在今天之后。
Yet the most important catalysts driving AST SpaceMobile toward its nearly $1 billion revenue target for 2027 have not yet occurred: BlueBird 7 is expected to launch in March, after which a launch cadence of once every one to two months will continue throughout the year; the year-end deployment target of 45 to 60 Block 2 BlueBird satellites has not yet been achieved; formal commercial services from MNO partners such as AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone have not yet been launched to end users; and the 2026 full-year revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million is more than double 2025's revenue, but first-half revenue will still primarily come from gateway hardware deliveries, with genuine service subscription revenue launching in the second half as constellation scale expands. The biggest catalysts are all still ahead.
10位华尔街分析师覆盖ASTS，分歧极大——Deutsche Bank目标价$139，Roth Capital刚于3月3日将目标价从$82.50上调至$108，Clear Street目标价$137；另一方面，UBS目标价最低$41.20，分析师共识平均目标价约$97.89。多空分歧如此之大，正是因为ASTS是全球唯一正在建造的太空直连宽带平台——一旦星座部署成功，其商业价值将远超当前估值；一旦执行出现重大偏差，风险同样不可忽视。
10 Wall Street analysts cover ASTS with extremely large divergence — Deutsche Bank has a target price of $139, Roth Capital just raised its target from $82.50 to $108 on March 3, and Clear Street has a target of $137; on the other hand, UBS has the lowest target at $41.20, with an analyst consensus average target price of approximately $97.89. The bull-bear divergence is this large precisely because ASTS is the world's only space direct-to-device broadband platform under construction — once the constellation deployment succeeds, its commercial value will far exceed the current valuation; if execution encounters significant deviation, the risks are equally not to be ignored.
本报告将深入拆解AST SpaceMobile的四大核心投资逻辑、关键催化剂时间节点、华尔街多空双方最新目标价对比，以及我们独立得出的12至24个月目标价区间——数字或许会让你意外。
This report will break down AST SpaceMobile's four core investment pillars, key catalyst timelines, the latest Wall Street bull and bear target price comparisons, and our independently derived 12- to 24-month target price range — and the numbers may surprise you.
