COIN · 深度研究报告 · In-Depth Research Report
全球合规加密金融基础设施的唯一上市纯粹标的：Coinbase (COIN)
FY2025 全年营收约 $72亿 同比增长约 9%、全年贸易量同比增长约 156% 创历史新高、订阅与服务收入约 $28亿 较 2021 年牛市高峰增长约 5.5倍、连续 12 季度调整后 EBITDA 盈利、连续两年调整后净利润盈利、账面现金约 $113亿、完成约 $17.4亿 股票回购并宣布新的约 $20亿 回购授权、Deribit 收购完成全球加密衍生品市场卡位、预测市场上线逾百万用户交易约 90 亿份合约年化收入约 $1亿、MIAXdx 收购 2026年1月20日 完成预测市场基础设施内化、Q4 单季 EPS 约 $0.66 超预期约 $0.63——Q4 因加密资产投资组合未实现亏损约 $7.18亿 与战略投资亏损约 $3.95亿 导致 GAAP 净亏损约 $6.67亿、股价盘后下跌约 8%：这些是非现金会计科目，Q4 调整后 EBITDA 约 $5.66亿、调整后净利润约 $1.78亿，运营层面完全正常——2026年1月 交易量同比增长超 50%、期权交易量同比增长约 20%，所有核心指标创历史新高，今天是最经典的会计科目引发市场误读的错杀建仓窗口。
FY2025 full-year revenue of ~$7.2 billion, up ~9% YoY; full-year trading volume increased ~156% YoY to a record high; subscription and services revenue reached ~$2.8 billion, a 5.5x increase compared to the 2021 bull market peak; 12 consecutive quarters of positive Adjusted EBITDA; two consecutive years of positive Adjusted Net Income; $11.3 billion in cash on hand; completed ~$1.74 billion in share buybacks with a new $2.0 billion authorization; Deribit acquisition secured a global crypto derivatives foothold; prediction markets reached over 1 million users with ~9 billion contracts traded and ~$100 million in annualized revenue; MIAXdx acquisition closed on January 20, 2026, internalizing infrastructure; Q4 single-quarter EPS of ~$0.66 beat the ~$0.63 expectation — GAAP net loss of ~$667 million in Q4 was driven by ~$718 million in unrealized crypto portfolio losses and ~$395 million in strategic investment losses, causing an 8% after-hours drop: these are non-cash accounting items; Q4 Adjusted EBITDA was ~$566 million and Adjusted Net Income was ~$178 million, indicating healthy operations — January 2026 trading volume grew over 50% YoY and options volume grew ~20% YoY, with all core metrics at record highs; today presents a classic "mispricing" entry window caused by market misinterpretation of accounting items.
2026年2月10日，Coinbase 发布 Q4 财报。GAAP 净亏损约 $6.67亿，低于分析师预期。股价盘后下跌约 8%。
On February 10, 2026, Coinbase released its Q4 earnings. The GAAP net loss was approximately $667 million, missing analyst expectations. The stock price fell about 8% after-hours.
市场在惩罚什么？约 $7.18亿 加密资产投资组合未实现亏损，加上约 $3.95亿 战略投资亏损——合计约 $11亿，全部是非现金会计科目，全部不代表任何现金流出，全部不影响 Coinbase 的运营能力。
What is the market punishing? Approximately $718 million in unrealized crypto asset portfolio losses, plus approximately $395 million in strategic investment losses—totaling about $1.1 billion, all of which are non-cash accounting items that do not represent any cash outflow and do not affect Coinbase's operational capacity.
Q4 调整后 EBITDA 约 $5.66亿。调整后净利润约 $1.78亿。运营层面盈利正常。
Q4 Adjusted EBITDA was approximately $566 million. Adjusted Net Income was approximately $178 million. Profitability at the operational level remains normal.
与此同时，2026年1月 的早期数据显示：交易量同比增长超 50%，期权交易量同比增长约 20%，净买入、事件合约、期货与融资余额均创历史新高。2月初日均交易量进一步高于 1 月水平。
Meanwhile, early data from January 2026 shows: trading volume increased by over 50% YoY, options volume increased by about 20% YoY, and net buys, event contracts, futures, and financing balances all hit record highs. Average daily trading volume in early February was even higher than January levels.
市场今天卖出的，不是 Coinbase 的业务——是对一个非现金会计科目的误读。而这种误读制造的折价，是财报日最经典的错杀结构。
What the market is selling today is not Coinbase's business—it is a misinterpretation of non-cash accounting items. The discount created by this misreading represents a classic mispricing structure on earnings day.
全年 2025 年 的真实面貌：总收入约 $72亿，同比增长约 9%；全年贸易量同比增长约 156%，创历史新高；订阅与服务收入约 $28亿，较 2021 年牛市高峰增长约 5.5倍；Coinbase One 付费订阅用户接近 100万，三年增长约 3倍；连续 12 季度调整后 EBITDA 盈利；账面现金约 $113亿；完成约 $17.4亿 股票回购并宣布新的约 $20亿 回购授权。
The true face of full-year 2025: total revenue of approximately $7.2 billion, up about 9% YoY; full-year trading volume up about 156% YoY, a record high; subscription and services revenue of approximately $2.8 billion, up about 5.5x from the 2021 bull market peak; Coinbase One paid subscribers nearing 1 million, up 3x in three years; 12 consecutive quarters of positive Adjusted EBITDA; $11.3 billion in cash on hand; completed approximately $1.74 billion in share buybacks and announced a new $2.0 billion buyback authorization.
本报告将深入拆解 Coinbase 的四大核心投资逻辑、关键催化剂时间节点、华尔街多空双方最新目标价对比，以及 12 至 24 个月目标价区间。
This report will deeply dismantle Coinbase's four core investment logics, key catalyst time nodes, latest Wall Street bull/bear target price comparisons, and the 12 to 24-month target price range.
