GOOGLE · 深度研究报告 · In-Depth Research Report
FY2025全年营收首破$4000亿、Q4营收$1138亿同比增长18%超预期、Google Cloud增长48%年化运行率突破$700亿、Cloud积压$2400亿同比增长55%、Gemini App月活7.5亿、EPS $2.82超预期7.2%——$1750亿至$1850亿资本开支引发恐慌抛售、YouTube广告略低于耳语数字、股价从历史高点$349压至约$297：全球最强搜索与云端AI双引擎平台，多重错杀叠加反垄断阴影制造年度最佳入场窗口
FY2025 full-year revenue breaking above $400 billion for the first time; Q4 revenue of $113.8 billion grew 18% year-over-year and beat expectations; Google Cloud growing 48% with annualized run rate breaking above $70 billion; Cloud backlog of $240 billion growing 55% sequentially; Gemini App monthly active users of 750 million; EPS of $2.82 beating expectations by 7.2% — capital expenditure of $175 billion to $185 billion triggering panic selling, YouTube advertising slightly below whisper numbers, and the stock falling from the all-time high of $349 to approximately $297: the world's strongest search and cloud AI dual-engine platform, with multiple mispricings combined with antitrust shadows creating the best entry window of the year
1998年，拉里·佩奇与谢尔盖·布林在斯坦福大学车库里架起了一台服务器。二十八年后，他们的继承者桑达尔·皮猜在2026年2月4日的财报电话会上宣告：「2025年是Alphabet的辉煌之年。Alphabet年度营收首次突破$4000亿。」
In 1998, Larry Page and Sergey Brin set up a server in a Stanford University garage. Twenty-eight years later, their successor Sundar Pichai declared on the February 4, 2026 earnings call: "2025 was a landmark year for Alphabet. Alphabet's annual revenue exceeded $400 billion for the first time."
数字是对这句话最精确的印证：Q4营收$1138亿，同比增长18%，超华尔街LSEG共识预期$1114亿；EPS $2.82，超预期$2.63，超越幅度7.2%；净利润$344.6亿，同比增长近30%；Google Cloud Q4营收$176.6亿，同比增长48%，大幅超预期$161.8亿，年化运行率突破$700亿；Cloud积压$2400亿，季度环比增长55%；Google Search营收同比增长17%，零售业尤为突出；YouTube全年广告加订阅营收突破$600亿；Gemini App月活用户7.5亿，Gemini API每分钟处理超过100亿Tokens；运营利润率31.6%；FY2025全年营收$4030亿，同比增长15%；Waymo累计服务1500万次行程，已进入迈阿密市场。
The numbers are the most precise confirmation of this statement: Q4 revenue of $113.8 billion grew 18% year-over-year and beat Wall Street LSEG consensus expectations of $111.4 billion; EPS of $2.82 beat the expected $2.63 by 7.2%; net income of $34.46 billion grew nearly 30% year-over-year; Google Cloud Q4 revenue of $17.66 billion grew 48% year-over-year, significantly beating expectations of $16.18 billion, with annualized run rate breaking above $70 billion; Cloud backlog of $240 billion grew 55% sequentially; Google Search revenue grew 17% year-over-year, with retail particularly outstanding; YouTube full-year advertising plus subscription revenue exceeded $60 billion; Gemini App monthly active users of 750 million, with the Gemini API processing more than 10 billion tokens per minute; operating margin of 31.6%; FY2025 full-year revenue of $403 billion grew 15% year-over-year; Waymo cumulatively served 15 million trips and has entered the Miami market.
然后，管理层给出了2026年资本开支：约$1750亿至$1850亿，是2025年约$910亿至$930亿的约两倍——市场盘后下跌约1.8%，此后持续回落。今天（2026年3月1日）的股价：约$297，较2025年11月历史高点$349回落约15%。
Then management gave 2026 capital expenditure of approximately $175 billion to $185 billion, approximately double 2025's approximately $91 billion to $93 billion — the market fell approximately 1.8% after hours and continued declining afterward. Today's stock price as of March 1, 2026 is approximately $297, down approximately 15% from the November 2025 all-time high of $349.
市场在恐惧什么？$1750亿至$1850亿资本开支近乎翻倍；YouTube广告$113.8亿略低于部分分析师的$118.4亿耳语数字；CFO明确表示Google Cloud「在供给受限环境中运营」。但这种担忧忽略了最关键的基本面：Cloud积压$2400亿季度环比增长55%，是需求远超供给的最直接证明；搜索AI Overview持续驱动「搜索比以往任何时候使用量都更多」；Waymo $160亿融资后以约$160亿估值完成独立，是Other Bets板块价值释放的历史性催化剂。
What is the market afraid of? Capital expenditure of $175 billion to $185 billion nearly doubling; YouTube advertising of $11.38 billion slightly below some analysts' whisper number of $11.84 billion; and the CFO explicitly stating that Google Cloud is "operating in a supply-constrained environment." But this concern ignores the most critical fundamentals: Cloud backlog of $240 billion growing 55% sequentially is the most direct proof that demand far exceeds supply; Search AI Overview continuously driving "search being used more than ever"; and Waymo completing its independence at an approximately $16 billion valuation after a $16 billion financing round, representing a historic catalyst for Other Bets segment value release.
本报告将深入拆解Alphabet的四大核心投资逻辑、关键催化剂时间节点、华尔街多空双方最新目标价对比，以及我们独立得出的12至24个月目标价区间——数字或许会让你意外。
This report will break down Alphabet's four core investment pillars, key catalyst timelines, the latest Wall Street bull and bear target price comparisons, and our independently derived 12- to 24-month target price range — and the numbers may surprise you.
