IREN 深度研究报告 · In-Depth Research Report
Q1 FY26营收$2.403亿同比增长355%创历史纪录、Adj. EBITDA $9170万同比增长3568%、$97亿微软AI云端大单五年合同预付20%年化ARR约$19.4亿、AI云端营收Q2季度环比增长137%、Q2营收$1.847亿同比增长约61%、现金$28亿（截至2026年1月31日）、逾$92亿融资已到位、超4.5GW电力储备仅需约460MW支撑$34亿ARR目标、140,000 GPU扩张路线图在轨——Q2 EPS大幅错过预期引发-17%盘后重挫、比特币挖矿收入过渡期下滑压制近期账面收入、AI云端营收占总营收比例仍低于10%触发空方担忧：IREN是全球AI基础设施军备竞赛中最被忽视的垂直整合AI云端平台，$97亿微软合同已经写入账本——今天约$37的价格是在$34亿年化营收路径清晰化之前以极度折价参与这轮AI基础设施主升浪的最关键建仓窗口
Q1 FY26 revenue of $240.3 million rose 355% year-over-year to a record high, Adj. EBITDA of $91.7 million rose 3568% year-over-year, the $9.7 billion Microsoft AI cloud mega-contract has a five-year term with a 20% prepayment and annualized ARR of about $1.94 billion, AI cloud revenue in Q2 grew 137% quarter-over-quarter, Q2 revenue was $184.7 million up about 61% year-over-year, cash was $2.8 billion as of January 31, 2026, more than $9.2 billion of financing has been secured, over 4.5GW of power reserve requires only about 460MW to support the $3.4 billion ARR target, and the 140,000 GPU expansion roadmap remains on track — Q2 EPS missed expectations badly, triggering a -17% after-hours plunge, transitional weakness in Bitcoin mining revenue pressured recent reported revenue, and AI cloud revenue still accounted for less than 10% of total revenue, triggering bearish concerns: IREN is the most overlooked vertically integrated AI cloud platform in the global AI infrastructure arms race, and the $9.7 billion Microsoft contract is already written into the books — today’s price of about $37 is the most critical entry window to participate in this AI infrastructure upcycle at an extreme discount before the path toward $3.4 billion in annualized revenue becomes fully clear.
2026年2月5日。IREN发布Q2 FY26财报。账面数字让市场失望：总营收$1.847亿，低于Q1的$2.403亿，低于分析师预期；净亏损$1.554亿，EPS -$0.52，远低于预期的-$0.18。股价盘后单日暴跌超17%，延续自2025年11月高点$76.87以来的回落，今日约$37，累计回落约52%。
February 5, 2026. IREN released its Q2 FY26 earnings report. The headline numbers disappointed the market: total revenue was $184.7 million, below Q1’s $240.3 million and below analyst expectations; net loss was $155.4 million, with EPS of -$0.52, far below the expected -$0.18. The stock plunged more than 17% in after-hours trading in a single day, extending the decline from the November 2025 high of $76.87, and today sits around $37, down about 52% in total.
但这些账面数字掩盖了一个截然不同的战略图景。Q2净亏损的绝大部分来自三项非现金、非经常性项目：可转换票据相关的未实现公允价值损失约$2.192亿、比特币挖矿资产减值约$3180万、股权激励约$5820万——剥离这些项目后，核心运营现金流状况完全不同。更关键的是，这个季度IREN完成了AI基础设施历史上最重要的几项战略动作：$36亿GPU融资（年息低于6%）到位，与微软$19亿预付款合计覆盖约95%的GPU相关资本支出；$97亿微软合同Horizon 1至4号液冷数据中心建设提速；英国哥伦比亚省AI云端合同约$4亿ARR落地；新增俄克拉荷马1.6GW园区，全网锁定电力储备突破4.5GW；超$92亿融资年初至今全部到位，现金$28亿。
But those headline numbers obscure a completely different strategic picture. Most of the Q2 net loss came from three non-cash, non-recurring items: about $219.2 million of unrealized fair value losses related to convertible notes, about $31.8 million of impairment on Bitcoin mining assets, and about $58.2 million of stock-based compensation — once these items are stripped out, the picture for core operating cash flow looks completely different. More importantly, during this quarter IREN completed several of the most important strategic moves in AI infrastructure history: $3.6 billion of GPU financing was secured at an annual interest rate below 6%, and together with Microsoft’s $1.9 billion prepayment, it covers about 95% of GPU-related capital expenditures; construction accelerated on Horizon 1 through 4 of the $9.7 billion Microsoft liquid-cooled data center contract; the British Columbia AI cloud contract worth about $400 million in ARR was secured; a new 1.6GW Oklahoma site was added, pushing total locked power reserves above 4.5GW; and more than $9.2 billion in financing has been secured year to date, with $2.8 billion in cash on hand.
IREN正在经历的是一家公司最艰难也最关键的战略转型期：从比特币挖矿（高度依赖BTC价格的波动性营收）向AI云端基础设施（长期多年合同的高可见度经常性营收）的完全切换。Q2是这个转型期的过渡低谷——比特币挖矿收入承压、AI云端产能尚未全面上线，两个业务的收入都无法达到峰值。但这个过渡低谷是有明确时间边界的：140,000 GPU扩张路线图在轨，Childress Horizon 1至4数据中心建设提速，Sweetwater新变电站计划于2026年4月通电，$34亿年化ARR目标被管理层维持为2026年底的承诺。
What IREN is going through is the hardest and also the most critical strategic transition period a company can face: a complete shift from Bitcoin mining, which generates volatile revenue highly dependent on BTC prices, to AI cloud infrastructure, which produces highly visible recurring revenue through long-term multi-year contracts. Q2 represents the transitional trough of this shift — Bitcoin mining revenue is under pressure, AI cloud capacity has not yet fully come online, and neither business is operating at peak revenue. But this transitional trough has a clear time boundary: the 140,000 GPU expansion roadmap is on track, construction is accelerating across Childress Horizon 1 through 4, the new Sweetwater substation is scheduled to be energized in April 2026, and management has maintained the $3.4 billion annualized ARR target as a commitment for the end of 2026.
本报告将深入拆解IREN的四大核心投资逻辑、关键催化剂时间节点、华尔街多空双方最新目标价对比，以及我们独立得出的12至24个月目标价区间——数字或许会让你意外。
This report will provide a deep breakdown of IREN’s four core investment theses, the key catalyst timeline, the latest target price comparisons from both bullish and bearish voices on Wall Street, and our independently derived 12- to 24-month target price range — the numbers may surprise you.
