SNDK · 深度研究报告 · In-Depth Research Report
纯正NAND闪存龙头：AI数据中心存储革命与High Bandwidth Flash新范式
The pure-play NAND flash leader: the AI data center storage revolution and the new paradigm of High Bandwidth Flash
从$27.89到$725再回落至$570：Q2营收同比增长61%、非GAAP毛利率从29.9%跃升至51.1%、Q3指引$44至$48亿令华尔街哑口无言——NAND结构性短缺时代，AI储存王者的估值重构才走到第一章
From $27.89 to $725 and back to $570: Q2 revenue growing 61% year-over-year, non-GAAP gross margin jumping from 29.9% to 51.1%, and Q3 guidance of $4.4 billion to $4.8 billion leaving Wall Street speechless — in the era of structural NAND shortage, the valuation reconstruction of the AI storage king has only reached its first chapter
2025年4月7日，SanDisk的股价触及上市以来的历史最低点：$27.89。
On April 7, 2025, SanDisk's stock reached its all-time post-IPO low: $27.89.
彼时，没有人知道接下来会发生什么。
At that time, no one knew what was about to happen.
2026年2月3日，同一家公司的股价摸到了历史最高点：$725.00。
On February 3, 2026, the same company's stock reached its all-time high: $725.00.
从$27.89到$725，涨幅超过2500%，历时不到一年。这是2025至2026年度全球表现最强的大市值科技股之一，年内涨幅超过160%，远远甩开软件板块23%的整体涨幅。
From $27.89 to $725, a gain of more than 2,500% in less than one year. This is one of the strongest performing large-cap technology stocks globally in 2025 to 2026, with a year-to-date gain exceeding 160%, far outpacing the software sector's overall gain of 23%.
然后，它开始回落。
Then it began to pull back.
Western Digital于2026年2月18日以$545折价出售所持SanDisk股份，套现$31.7亿，触发了市场的获利回吐情绪，叠加科技板块整体调整，股价从$725高点下滑至今日的$557至$570区间，回落幅度约20%至22%。
Western Digital sold its SanDisk shares at a discounted price of $545 on February 18, 2026, cashing out $3.17 billion, triggering profit-taking sentiment in the market, combined with a broader technology sector adjustment, pushing the stock from the $725 high down to today's $557 to $570 range, a pullback of approximately 20% to 22%.
然而，推动这轮从$27.89涨至$725的每一个基本面驱动因素，在今天没有任何一项消失。
Yet not a single fundamental driver behind the move from $27.89 to $725 has disappeared today.
Q2营收$30.2亿，同比增长61%，大幅超越华尔街预期的$26.8亿；非GAAP每股盈利$6.20，超预期整整75.7%；非GAAP毛利率从上季度的29.9%跃升至51.1%，单季净利润$8.03亿。而这，还不是最令人震惊的数字。
Q2 revenue of $3.02 billion grew 61% year-over-year, significantly beating Wall Street expectations of $2.68 billion; non-GAAP EPS of $6.20 beat expectations by a full 75.7%; non-GAAP gross margin jumped from the prior quarter's 29.9% to 51.1%, with single-quarter net income of $803 million. And this is not even the most shocking number.
Q3营收指引：$44亿至$48亿。
Q3 revenue guidance: $4.4 billion to $4.8 billion.
这意味着，下一个季度的营收预期是刚刚过去这个超预期季度的1.5倍，是华尔街事前预期的近两倍。管理层更直言不讳：NAND市场供给短缺程度预计在Q3将比Q2更深，AI超大规模数据中心储存需求预估到2027年将达到75至100艾字节，这是一个在人类存储技术历史上从未出现过的需求量级。
This means that next quarter's revenue expectation is 1.5 times the just-passed quarter that beat expectations, and nearly double Wall Street's prior expectations. Management was more direct: the NAND market supply shortage is expected to be deeper in Q3 than in Q2, and AI hyperscale data center storage demand is estimated to reach 75 to 100 exabytes by 2027 — a demand magnitude that has never appeared before in the history of human storage technology.
本报告将深入拆解SanDisk的四大核心投资逻辑、关键催化剂时间节点、华尔街多空双方最新目标价对比，以及我们独立得出的12至24个月目标价区间——数字或许会让你意外。
This report will break down SanDisk's four core investment pillars, key catalyst timelines, the latest Wall Street bull and bear target price comparisons, and our independently derived 12- to 24-month target price range — and the numbers may surprise you.
