TSM · 深度研究报告 · In-Depth Research Report

全球算力的唯一守门人：2nm量产超预期与CoWoS封装垄断

The world's sole gatekeeper of compute: 2nm production exceeding expectations and CoWoS packaging dominance

Q4营收$337.3亿同比增长25.5%超指引上限（指引$322亿至$334亿）、毛利率62.3%创历史纪录、净利润同比增长35%至约$163亿、Q4 EPS $3.14同比增长40.2%超预期5.2%、FY2025全年营收$1224亿同比增长35.9%创历史纪录、全年净利润约$554亿同比增长46%创历史纪录、HPC平台占FY2025总营收58%同比增长48%、AI加速器营收占比从2024年中十几升至2025年高十几百分比、N2提前进入量产且良率良好、Q1 2026指引$346亿至$358亿同比增长38%、AI加速器营收CAGR目标上调至55%至59%（2024至2029年）、全年营收CAGR上调至25%、2026年资本开支$520亿至$560亿创历史纪录——美国与以色列对伊朗军事行动引发全球科技板块情绪性抛售、今日股价约$345较2025年高点回落：与台积电自身任何业务指标完全无关的地缘政治恐慌，正在以折价出售全球AI基础设施唯一不可替代的制造基础——距3月10日月营收公告仅7天、距4月16日Q1财报仅44天，今天是最清晰的错杀建仓窗口

Q4 revenue of $33.73 billion grew 25.5% year-over-year and exceeded the guidance ceiling of $33.4 billion; gross margin of 62.3% set an all-time record; net income grew 35% year-over-year to approximately $16.3 billion; Q4 EPS of $3.14 grew 40.2% year-over-year and beat expectations by 5.2%; FY2025 full-year revenue of $122.4 billion grew 35.9% year-over-year and set an all-time record; full-year net income of approximately $55.4 billion grew 46% year-over-year and set an all-time record; HPC platform accounted for 58% of FY2025 total revenue, growing 48% year-over-year; AI accelerator revenue share rose from the mid-teens percentage in 2024 to the high-teens percentage in 2025; N2 entered production ahead of schedule with good yields; Q1 2026 guidance of $34.6 billion to $35.8 billion implies 38% year-over-year growth; AI accelerator revenue CAGR target raised to 55% to 59% (2024 to 2029); full-year revenue CAGR raised to 25%; 2026 capital expenditure of $52 billion to $56 billion set an all-time record — U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran triggered emotional selling across global technology sectors, and today's stock price of approximately $345 has pulled back from 2025 highs: geopolitical panic completely unrelated to any of TSMC's own business metrics is discounting at a bargain the only irreplaceable manufacturing foundation for global AI infrastructure — with only 7 days until the March 10 monthly revenue announcement and only 44 days until the Q1 earnings on April 16, today is the clearest mispriced entry window

2026年1月15日。台积电CEO魏哲家用一句话总结了他的最强年度成绩单：「AI是真实的……正在进入我们的日常生活。」这不是公关套话，是由$1224亿全年营收、62.3%历史最高毛利率、$554亿历史最高净利润支撑的实证陈述。

January 15, 2026. TSMC CEO C.C. Wei used one sentence to summarize his strongest annual report card: "AI is real... and it is entering our daily lives." This is not a public relations talking point but an empirical statement supported by $122.4 billion in full-year revenue, a 62.3% all-time high gross margin, and $55.4 billion in all-time high net income.

数字的规模令人震撼：Q4营收$337.3亿，超过指引上限$334亿；Q4毛利率62.3%，创台积电有史以来季度最高毛利率，高于此前历史记录62.22%（2022年Q4）；Q4净利润同比增长35%；EPS同比增长40.2%，超华尔街预期5.2%；FY2025全年营收$1224亿，同比增长35.9%；全年净利润约$554亿，同比增长46%；HPC平台FY2025同比增长48%，占总营收58%；AI加速器营收FY2025占总营收比例升至高十几百分比。

The scale of the numbers is staggering: Q4 revenue of $33.73 billion exceeded the guidance ceiling of $33.4 billion; Q4 gross margin of 62.3% set the highest quarterly gross margin in TSMC's history, surpassing the prior record of 62.22% set in Q4 2022; Q4 net income grew 35% year-over-year; EPS grew 40.2% year-over-year and beat Wall Street expectations by 5.2%; FY2025 full-year revenue of $122.4 billion grew 35.9% year-over-year; full-year net income of approximately $55.4 billion grew 46% year-over-year; the HPC platform grew 48% in FY2025 and accounted for 58% of total revenue; and AI accelerator revenue as a proportion of total revenue rose to the high-teens percentage in FY2025.

然后是前所未有的前瞻：Q1 2026营收指引$346亿至$358亿，同比增长38%，是台积电近年来最强单季指引增速；2026年全年营收增速「接近30%」；AI加速器营收五年CAGR目标从此前预期大幅上调至55%至59%（2024至2029年）；公司整体五年营收CAGR从20%上调至25%；2026年资本开支$520亿至$560亿，创台积电历史最高资本开支；N2已在台湾新竹与高雄两地进入量产，良率良好；N2P与A16（配备背面供电Super Power Rail技术）计划2026年H2量产；亚利桑那第二工厂主体建设完成，正在启动设备搬入，有望提前至2027年H2量产；苹果据报已锁定N2初期产能的50%以上用于iPhone 18。

Then came the unprecedented forward guidance: Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $34.6 billion to $35.8 billion, implying 38% year-over-year growth, the strongest single-quarter guidance growth rate for TSMC in recent years; full-year 2026 revenue growth of "close to 30%"; AI accelerator revenue five-year CAGR target significantly raised from prior expectations to 55% to 59% (2024 to 2029); the company's overall five-year revenue CAGR raised from 20% to 25%; 2026 capital expenditure of $52 billion to $56 billion set an all-time high; N2 entered production in both Hsinchu and Kaohsiung in Taiwan with good yields; N2P and A16 (equipped with the Super Power Rail backside power delivery technology) planned for H2 2026 production; Arizona Phase 2 factory main construction completed and equipment move-in initiated, potentially advancing to H2 2027 production; Apple reportedly locked in more than 50% of initial N2 capacity for iPhone 18.

今天（2026年3月3日）的股价：约$345。

Today's stock price as of March 3, 2026 is approximately $345.

昨日TSM在美股市场下跌5.5%。原因：美国与以色列对伊朗军事行动引发全球科技与半导体板块的情绪性抛售。与台积电位于台湾、日本、美国、德国的制造业务、与任何客户的供货合同、与AI加速器的需求轨迹，没有任何关系。

Yesterday, TSM fell 5.5% in U.S. markets. The reason: U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran triggered emotional selling across global technology and semiconductor sectors. This has no relationship whatsoever with TSMC's manufacturing operations in Taiwan, Japan, the United States, and Germany, with any customer's supply contracts, or with the demand trajectory for AI accelerators.

本报告将深入拆解台积电的四大核心投资逻辑、关键催化剂时间节点、华尔街多空双方最新目标价对比，以及我们独立得出的12至24个月目标价区间——数字或许会让你意外。

This report will break down TSMC's four core investment pillars, key catalyst timelines, the latest Wall Street bull and bear target price comparisons, and our independently derived 12- to 24-month target price range — and the numbers may surprise you.