AMD · 交易机会 · Trading Opportunity
Q4营收$103亿超预期23%、EPS超预期23.4%、OpenAI 6GW合作协议、MI450与Helios H2量产——Q1指引环比下降5%引发盘后重挫8%、科技板块整体抛售叠加错杀：AI算力格局最重要的第二选择，H2 2026最强营收爆发前的最佳建仓窗口正在今天开启
Q4 revenue $10.3 billion beating expectations by 23%, EPS beating expectations by 23.4%, OpenAI 6GW cooperation agreement, MI450 and Helios H2 mass production — Q1 guidance quarter-over-quarter decline of 5% triggered after-hours crash of 8%, technology sector broad selling compounded by mispricing: the most important second choice in the AI compute landscape, the best entry window before the strongest H2 2026 revenue explosion is opening today.
2026年2月3日。AMD发布Q4 2025财报。
February 3, 2026. AMD released Q4 2025 earnings.
营收$103亿，超预期6.2%。非GAAP每股盈利$1.53，超预期23.4%。全年营收$346亿，同比增长34%，创历史纪录。OpenAI 6GW合作协议确认进入执行阶段。CEO丽莎苏："AI业务将在2027年实现数百亿美元年度营收。"
Revenue $10.3 billion, beating expectations by 6.2%. Non-GAAP EPS $1.53, beating expectations by 23.4%. Full-year revenue $34.6 billion, up 34% year-over-year, a historical record. OpenAI 6GW cooperation agreement confirmed entering execution stage. CEO Lisa Su: "AI business will achieve tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue in 2027."
盘后：AMD股价重挫约8%，从约$210跌至约$193。
After-hours: AMD share price crashed approximately 8%, from approximately $210 to approximately $193.
今天的股价：约$190。
Today's share price: approximately $190.
原因只有一个：Q1 2026营收指引$98亿，环比下降约5%——部分分析师希望看到$100亿以上。
The reason is only one: Q1 2026 revenue guidance $9.8 billion, down approximately 5% quarter-over-quarter — some analysts hoped to see above $10 billion.
这就是市场的逻辑：用一个每年Q1都会出现的季节性调整，惩罚一份各项核心指标全线超越预期、全年营收创历史纪录、OpenAI 6GW协议进入执行倒计时的财报。
This is the market's logic: using a seasonal adjustment that appears every Q1, to punish an earnings report where all core metrics beat expectations across the board, full-year revenue set a historical record, and the OpenAI 6GW agreement entered execution countdown.
Q1环比下降的原因已经清晰量化：客户端、游戏与嵌入式板块的季节性下滑，部分被数据中心继续环比增长所抵消——这是每年Q1固定出现的季节性模式，不代表业务基本面的真实恶化。
The reasons for Q1 quarter-over-quarter decline have been clearly quantified: seasonal declines in client, gaming and embedded segments, partially offset by continued quarter-over-quarter growth in data centres — this is a seasonal pattern that appears every Q1, not a signal of true deterioration in business fundamentals.
真正的故事在H2 2026：MI450与Helios机架平台量产、OpenAI 1GW数据中心开始建设、丽莎苏口中"数百亿美元AI营收"路径的第一批真实数据——这是AMD历史上最密集的AI产品量产周期。
The real story is in H2 2026: MI450 and Helios rack platform mass production, OpenAI 1GW data centre beginning construction, the first real data on Lisa Su's "tens of billions of dollars AI revenue" path — this is the most intensive AI product mass production cycle in AMD's history.
而今天约$190的价格，是在这一切发生之前的入场价格。
And today's price of approximately $190 is the entry price before all of this happens.
每年Q1都会发生的季节性调整，市场却用它来惩罚一家AI算力格局里最重要的第二极。下半部分，我们会拆解三重错位的具体逻辑、H2爆发前每一个关键时间节点，以及完整的分阶段建仓价位区间、三个阶段的止盈目标，和触发重新评估持仓的具体条件。
A seasonal adjustment that happens every Q1, yet the market uses it to punish the most important second pole in the AI compute landscape. In the second half, we will break down the specific logic of the three mispricings, every key time point before the H2 explosion, and the complete tiered entry price ranges, three-stage profit-taking targets, and the specific conditions that trigger re-evaluation of the position.
