AMZN· 交易机会 · Trading Opportunity
FY2025全年营收约$7169亿首次超越沃尔玛、Q4 AWS营收约$356亿同比增长约24%创近年最快增速、AWS订单积压约$2440亿同比增长约40%创历史最大单季积压、广告营收约$213亿同比增长约22%、Trainium与Graviton自研芯片年化营收超约$100亿同比三位数增长——约$2000亿资本开支指引引发恐慌、自由现金流大幅压缩、股价从历史高点约$258回落约24%至约$196：市场对短期自由现金流压制的恐惧，正在折价出售一家约$2440亿积压合同已经写入账本、每季度产能是唯一瓶颈的全球AI云端基础设施最大平台，今天是最清晰的错杀建仓窗口
FY2025 full-year revenue of about $716.9 billion surpassed Walmart for the first time, Q4 AWS revenue of about $35.6 billion grew about 24% year-over-year for the fastest growth rate in recent years, AWS order backlog of about $244.0 billion grew about 40% year-over-year to a record high single-quarter backlog, advertising revenue of about $21.3 billion grew about 22% year-over-year, and annualized revenue from self-developed Trainium and Graviton chips exceeded about $10 billion with triple-digit year-over-year growth — guidance for about $200 billion in capital expenditures triggered panic, free cash flow was sharply compressed, and the stock fell about 24% from its all-time high of about $258 to about $196: the market’s fear of short-term free cash flow pressure is discounting the world’s largest AI cloud infrastructure platform, whose about $244.0 billion backlog contracts are already written into the books and whose only bottleneck each quarter is capacity, making today the clearest mispricing entry window.
2026年初，Amazon发布Q4业绩。
At the beginning of 2026, Amazon released its Q4 results.
AWS季度营收约$356亿，同比增长约24%，是近年最快增速，年化营收运行率约$1420亿。AWS订单积压约$2440亿，同比增长约40%，创历史最大单季积压金额。全年营收约$7169亿，首次超越沃尔玛成为全球营收最高公司。自研芯片年化营收超约$100亿，同比三位数增长。广告季度营收约$213亿，同比增长约22%。
AWS quarterly revenue was about $35.6 billion, up about 24% year-over-year, the fastest growth rate in recent years, with an annualized revenue run rate of about $142.0 billion. AWS order backlog was about $244.0 billion, up about 40% year-over-year, marking the largest single-quarter backlog amount in history. Full-year revenue was about $716.9 billion, surpassing Walmart for the first time to become the world’s highest-revenue company. Annualized revenue from self-developed chips exceeded about $10 billion, with triple-digit year-over-year growth. Quarterly advertising revenue was about $21.3 billion, up about 22%.
然后，管理层宣布2026年资本开支约$2000亿。
Then, management announced capital expenditures of about $200 billion for 2026.
市场盘后重挫超约10%。今天的股价：约$196。
The market plunged more than about 10% after hours. Today’s stock price: about $196.
CEO贾西在财报电话会上用一句话解释了这约$2000亿：“我们正在以能多快安装就多快变现产能的速度运营。”
CEO Jassy explained this approximately $200 billion with one sentence on the earnings call: “We are operating at the speed at which we can monetize capacity as fast as we can install it.”
这不是盲目烧钱的宣告——这是约$2440亿签约积压已经在账本上、产能是唯一瓶颈的企业，对需求可见度最直接的战略回应。约$2000亿资本开支不是风险，是约$2440亿积压需求的必然回应。
This is not a declaration of blind cash burning — it is the most direct strategic response to demand visibility by a company whose about $244.0 billion signed backlog is already on the books and for which capacity is the only bottleneck. About $200 billion in capital expenditures is not a risk, but the inevitable response to about $244.0 billion in backlog demand.
市场今天用自由现金流大幅压缩这一个有明确原因、有明确时间边界的短期指标，将一家AWS积压约$2440亿、广告年化营收约$690亿、自研芯片年化营收约$100亿的三引擎复合平台，从历史高点折价约24%出售。
Today the market is using the sharp compression in free cash flow, a short-term metric with a clear cause and a clear time boundary, to sell at about a 24% discount from its all-time high a three-engine compound platform with AWS backlog of about $244.0 billion, advertising annualized revenue of about $69.0 billion, and self-developed chip annualized revenue of about $10.0 billion.
而约$2440亿积压正在以每季度约$300亿至$350亿的速度转化为已确认营收。市场今天卖出的理由，是一笔为了兑现这些积压而必须花出去的钱。
And the approximately $244.0 billion backlog is being converted into recognized revenue at a pace of about $30 billion to $35 billion per quarter. The reason the market is selling today is money that must be spent in order to realize this backlog.
下半部分，我们会拆解资本开支约$2000亿背后的积压兑现逻辑、AWS增速加速的具体驱动因素，以及完整的分阶段建仓价位区间、三个阶段的止盈目标，和触发重新评估持仓的具体条件。
In the second half, we will break down the logic of backlog realization behind the approximately $200 billion in capital expenditures, the specific drivers behind accelerating AWS growth, as well as the complete staged entry price ranges, the three stages of profit-taking targets, and the specific conditions that would trigger a reassessment of the position.
