COIN · 交易机会 · Trading Opportunity
全年2025年收入约$72亿同比增长约9%、全年贸易量同比增长约156%创历史新高、订阅与服务收入约$28亿较2021年牛市高峰增长约5.5倍、连续12季度调整后EBITDA盈利、账面现金约$113亿、约$20亿新回购授权、Deribit完成全球衍生品市场卡位、MIAXdx 2026年1月20日完成交割预测市场基础设施内化——Q4因非现金会计科目导致GAAP净亏损约$6.67亿、股价盘后下跌约8%：调整后EBITDA约$5.66亿运营完全正常、2026年1月交易量同比增长超50%所有指标创历史新高——市场将非现金会计亏损误读为经营恶化，制造了财报日最经典的错杀入场结构，今天是最清晰的情绪误读与基本面背离的建仓窗口
Full-year 2025 revenue was about $7.2 billion, up about 9% year-over-year, full-year trading volume grew about 156% year-over-year to a record high, subscription and services revenue was about $2.8 billion, up about 5.5 times versus the 2021 bull market peak, adjusted EBITDA was profitable for 12 consecutive quarters, cash on the balance sheet was about $11.3 billion, there was about $2.0 billion in new buyback authorization, Deribit completed its strategic positioning in the global derivatives market, and MIAXdx completed closing on January 20, 2026, internalizing prediction market infrastructure — Q4 GAAP net loss of about $667 million was caused by non-cash accounting items, and the stock fell about 8% after hours: adjusted EBITDA of about $566 million shows operations are completely normal, and in January 2026 trading volume grew more than 50% year-over-year with all metrics hitting record highs — the market has misread a non-cash accounting loss as operating deterioration, creating the most classic mispricing entry structure on earnings day, and today is the clearest entry window created by emotional misreading and divergence from fundamentals.
今天，Coinbase因Q4 GAAP净亏损约$6.67亿而股价下跌约8%。
Today, Coinbase’s stock fell about 8% because of a Q4 GAAP net loss of about $667 million.
让我们看清楚这约$6.67亿亏损由什么构成：约$7.18亿加密资产投资组合未实现亏损（持有的比特币等资产账面价值下降，没有卖出，没有现金流出）＋约$3.95亿战略投资亏损（对外投资的账面调整，同样没有现金流出）。
Let us clearly see what this approximately $667 million loss consists of: about $718 million in unrealized losses on the crypto asset investment portfolio (the book value of held assets such as Bitcoin declined, nothing was sold, and there was no cash outflow) plus about $395 million in strategic investment losses (book adjustments on external investments, likewise with no cash outflow).
剔除这些非现金科目，Q4调整后EBITDA约$5.66亿，调整后净利润约$1.78亿。运营层面完全正常盈利。
Excluding these non-cash items, Q4 adjusted EBITDA was about $566 million, and adjusted net profit was about $178 million. At the operating level, profitability was completely normal.
与此同时，2026年1月：交易量同比增长超50%，期权交易量同比增长约20%，净买入、事件合约、期货与融资余额均创历史新高。2月初日均交易量进一步高于1月水平。
At the same time, in January 2026: trading volume grew more than 50% year-over-year, options trading volume grew about 20% year-over-year, and net buying, event contracts, futures, and financing balances all reached record highs. In early February, average daily trading volume moved even higher than January levels.
市场今天卖出的，是一个会计科目，不是Coinbase的业务。这种误读制造的折价，历史上从来不会持续太久。
What the market sold today was an accounting line item, not Coinbase’s business. Discounts created by this kind of misreading have historically never lasted very long.
下半部分，我们会拆解三重错位逻辑、未来数周内的基本面验证节点，以及完整的分阶段建仓价位、止盈目标价，和触发重新评估的具体条件。
In the second half, we will break down the logic behind the three misalignments, the fundamental validation checkpoints over the coming weeks, as well as the complete staged entry price levels, profit-taking target prices, and the specific conditions that would trigger a reassessment.
