AAPL · 深度研究报告 · In-Depth Research Report
史上最强季报：iPhone 17超级周期与服务业务双引擎驱动
Apple's Strongest Quarterly Report: iPhone 17 Super-Cycle and Services Engine Drive Growth
Q1营收$1438亿同比增长16%创历史最高单季营收、iPhone $853亿同比增长23%创历史最高单季iPhone营收、EPS $2.84同比增长19%创历史纪录、Services营收$300亿同比增长14%创历史纪录、大中华区营收同比增长38%创历史新高、运营现金流$539亿任何公司任何季度史上最高、Q2指引增速13%至16%高于华尔街预期、股东回报$320亿含$250亿回购、活跃设备数突破25亿创历史纪录——关税约$14亿成本、Google搜索诉讼排他协议终止要求、Apple Intelligence货币化节奏担忧三重已知可量化因素将股价压制在约$256：iPhone 18（台积电2nm）年底发布、Google Gemini驱动下一代Siri、WWDC 2026 Apple Intelligence付费服务、Services飞轮加速——iPhone+AI超级周期最关键建仓窗口正在今天开启
Q1 revenue of $143.8 billion up 16% YoY marks an all-time quarterly record; iPhone revenue hit $85.3 billion (+23% YoY); EPS of $2.84 (+19% YoY) is a new record; Services reached $30.0 billion (+14% YoY); Greater China revenue surged 38% to a new high; operating cash flow of $53.9 billion is the highest ever for any company in any quarter; Q2 guidance suggests 13%–16% growth, beating expectations; $32 billion returned to shareholders ($25 billion buybacks); active devices surpassed 2.5 billion. Despite $1.4 billion in tariff costs, Google search litigation, and AI monetization concerns keeping the price around $256, the iPhone 18 (TSMC 2nm) launch, Gemini-powered Siri, and upcoming WWDC 2026 AI services signify that the most critical entry window for the iPhone+AI super-cycle is opening today.
2026年1月29日。蒂姆·库克在财报电话会上宣布了他的最强成绩单，并将其定义为”remarkable, record-breaking quarter”：营收$1438亿，史上最高；iPhone $853亿，史上最高；EPS $2.84，史上最高；运营现金流$539亿，任何公司任何季度的史上最高。大中华区营收同比增长38%，城市门店客流量强劲双位数增长，iPhone在中国城区跻身最畅销智能手机前三。活跃设备数突破25亿，创历史纪录。
On January 29, 2026, Tim Cook announced his strongest report card during the earnings call, defining it as a "remarkable, record-breaking quarter": revenue of $143.8 billion, the highest in history; iPhone at $85.3 billion, the highest in history; EPS of $2.84, the highest in history; operating cash flow of $53.9 billion, the highest of any company in any quarter in history. Greater China revenue grew by 38% year-over-year, with urban store foot traffic seeing strong double-digit growth, and the iPhone ranking among the top three best-selling smartphones in urban China. The number of active devices broke 2.5 billion, a record high.
然后是Q2指引：营收$1078亿至$1107亿，高于华尔街预期$1048亿，隐含同比增速约13%至16%。毛利率指引48%至49%，与Q1基本持平。每项核心财务指标全线创历史纪录。每项Q2指引都高于华尔街预期。
Then came the Q2 guidance: revenue between $107.8 billion and $110.7 billion, higher than the Wall Street expectation of $104.8 billion, implying a year-over-year growth rate of approximately 13% to 16%. Gross margin guidance is 48% to 49%, basically flat with Q1. Every core financial metric hit a record high across the board. Every Q2 guidance figure was higher than Wall Street expectations.
今天（2026年2月13日）的股价：约$256。距这份史上最强财报发布已过去整整两周，而$256几乎与财报前原地未动。
Today's (February 13, 2026) stock price: approximately $256. It has been exactly two weeks since this strongest-ever financial report was released, and $256 is almost unchanged from where it was before the report.
压制股价的三个因素：关税——管理层已在Q1业绩中消化约$14亿关税成本，Q2毛利率指引48%至49%已充分反映持续关税压力，这是已知变量；Google搜索诉讼——法院裁决要求排他性协议在一年内终止，但新的协议重新签署谈判已在进行；Apple Intelligence货币化节奏——iOS 26.4即将在2026年2月发布，进一步深化Apple Intelligence部署深度。三个压制因素全部是已知的、已量化的、有明确时间解决路径的短期变量。
Three factors suppressing the stock price: Tariffs—management already digested approximately $1.4 billion in tariff costs in the Q1 results, and the Q2 gross margin guidance of 48% to 49% fully reflects ongoing tariff pressure, which is a known variable; the Google search lawsuit—the court ruling requires the exclusive agreement to terminate within one year, but negotiations for the signing of a new agreement are already underway; Apple Intelligence monetization pace—iOS 26.4 is about to be released in February 2026, further deepening the deployment depth of Apple Intelligence. All three suppressing factors are known, quantified short-term variables with clear resolution paths.
而驱动Apple向约$330迈进的催化剂——iPhone 18（2nm制程）年底发布、Google Gemini驱动下一代Siri、WWDC 2026 Apple Intelligence付费服务、Services飞轮持续加速——都有明确的时间节点，且正在以每月递进的速度进入执行倒计时。
Meanwhile, the catalysts driving Apple toward approximately $330—the launch of iPhone 18 (2nm process) at the end of the year, Google Gemini powering the next-generation Siri, the WWDC 2026 Apple Intelligence paid service, and the continued acceleration of the Services flywheel—all have clear time nodes and are entering the execution countdown at a monthly progression rate.
本报告将深入拆解Apple的四大核心投资逻辑、关键催化剂时间节点、华尔街多空双方最新目标价对比，以及我们独立得出的12至24个月目标价区间——数字或许会让你意外。
This report will deeply disassemble Apple's four core investment logics, key catalyst time nodes, the latest target price comparison between Wall Street bulls and bears, and our independently derived 12 to 24-month target price range—the numbers might surprise you.
