TSM ·交易机会· Trading Opportunity

Q4营收约$337亿超指引上限、毛利率约62%创历史纪录、FY2025全年营收约$1224亿同比增长约36%创历史纪录、全年净利润约$554亿同比增长约46%创历史纪录、Q1指引同比增长约38%、AI加速器营收五年CAGR目标上调至约55%至59%、公司整体五年营收CAGR上调至约25%、股息同比增长约28%——美国与以色列对伊朗军事行动引发全球科技板块情绪性抛售、TSM单日下跌约5.5%至约$345:台积电没有一座晶圆厂位于中东、没有任何供货合同与伊朗挂钩、AI加速器订单积压在昨天没有减少一片——距2月月营收公告仅数天、距Q1财报仅约六周,今天是最经典的完全无关原因引发的错杀建仓窗口

Q4 revenue of approximately $33.7 billion exceeded the upper end of guidance, gross margin around 62% reached a record high, FY2025 full-year revenue of approximately $122.4 billion grew about 36% year-over-year to a record, full-year net profit of approximately $55.4 billion increased about 46% year-over-year to a record, Q1 guidance implies about 38% year-over-year growth, AI accelerator revenue five-year CAGR target raised to approximately 55%–59%, overall company five-year revenue CAGR raised to about 25%, dividends increased about 28% year-over-year — U.S. and Israel military actions against Iran triggered a sentiment-driven sell-off in global tech sectors, TSM dropped about 5.5% in a single day to around $345: TSM has no fabs located in the Middle East, no supply contracts linked to Iran, and AI accelerator order backlog has not reduced by even one unit between yesterday and today — with only days until the February monthly revenue report and about six weeks until the Q1 earnings release, today represents the most classic entry window driven by completely unrelated factors.

2025年底至2026年初,台积电连续创纪录。

From the end of 2025 to early 2026, TSMC has continued to set records.

Q4营收超指引上限。毛利率约62%,打破台积电自身三年前创下的历史纪录。FY2025全年营收约$1224亿,同比增长约36%。全年净利润同比增长约46%。Q1指引同比增长约38%,是台积电近年来最强的单季指引增速。AI加速器五年CAGR目标上调至约55%至59%。公司整体五年营收CAGR从约20%上调至约25%。

Q4 revenue exceeded the upper end of guidance. Gross margin around 62% broke TSMC’s own record set three years ago. FY2025 full-year revenue reached approximately $122.4 billion, up about 36% year-over-year. Full-year net profit increased about 46% year-over-year. Q1 guidance implies about 38% year-over-year growth, the strongest single-quarter guidance in recent years. AI accelerator five-year CAGR target raised to approximately 55%–59%. Overall company five-year revenue CAGR increased from about 20% to around 25%.

然后,美国与以色列对伊朗实施军事行动。全球科技与半导体板块情绪性抛售。TSM单日下跌约5.5%。今日股价:约$345。

Then, the United States and Israel carried out military actions against Iran. A sentiment-driven sell-off hit global technology and semiconductor sectors. TSM declined about 5.5% in a single day. Current price: approximately $345.

台积电没有任何一座晶圆厂位于中东。没有与伊朗任何直接供货合同。AI加速器订单积压在昨天与今天之间没有减少一片。英伟达、AMD、Apple、Broadcom对台积电先进制程产能的需求可见度,在军事行动前后没有发生任何改变。

TSMC does not have any fabs located in the Middle East. It has no direct supply contracts with Iran. AI accelerator order backlog has not decreased by even a single unit between yesterday and today. Demand visibility from Nvidia, AMD, Apple, and Broadcom for TSMC’s advanced nodes has not changed before or after the military actions.

这约5.5%的跌幅,与台积电任何业务指标完全无关。

This approximately 5.5% decline is completely unrelated to any of TSMC’s business fundamentals.

市场在今天卖出的,不是台积电——是地缘政治情绪。而情绪性抛售制造的折价,历史上从来不会持续太久。距最近期的基本面验证触发点仅数天,距Q1正式财报仅约六周。

What the market sold today was not TSMC — it was geopolitical sentiment. Discounts created by sentiment-driven selling have historically never lasted long. The nearest fundamental validation catalyst is only days away, and the official Q1 earnings release is about six weeks away.

今天约$345的价格,是以完全无关的地缘政治情绪,折价出售全球AI算力物理实现的唯一入口。下半部分,我们会拆解这次错杀的具体量化逻辑、未来数周内每一个基本面修复催化剂,以及完整的分阶段建仓价位区间、三个阶段的止盈目标,和触发重新评估持仓的具体条件。

Today’s price of approximately $345 represents the only physical gateway to global AI compute being sold at a discount due to completely unrelated geopolitical sentiment. In the following sections, we will break down the quantitative logic behind this mispricing, each fundamental recovery catalyst in the coming weeks, as well as the full staged entry ranges, three-stage profit-taking targets, and specific conditions that would trigger a reassessment of the position.