NBIS · 高风险高回报 · High Risk Reward
先看这两个合同数字
First, look at these two contract figures
微软：约$194亿，五年期。
Microsoft: approximately $19.4 billion, five-year term.
Meta：约$29亿，五年期。
Meta: approximately $2.9 billion, five-year term.
合计超过约$220亿的长期合同积压——在这篇报告写成的时候，Nebius的整体市值只有约$240亿。
A combined long-term contract backlog of over $22 billion—at the time of writing this report, Nebius's total market capitalization is only approximately $24 billion.
换句话说：这家公司手上的合同总额，几乎等于整个公司的市值。
In other words: the total value of the contracts held by this company is almost equal to the entire company's market capitalization.
今天的股价：约$74至$79，距历史高位约$141跌去约47%。
Today's stock price: approximately $74 to $79, down about 47% from its all-time high of approximately $141.
股价腰斩，但那约$220亿的合同没有少一分。
The stock price has been cut in half, but those approximately $22 billion in contracts have not decreased by a single cent.
Nebius是什么
What is Nebius
Nebius的前身是俄罗斯最大的科技公司Yandex。2022年俄乌战争后，Yandex将俄罗斯业务出售，剩余的国际业务重组为Nebius，在纳斯达克重新上市，彻底转型为一家专注全球AI基础设施的公司。
Nebius's predecessor was Yandex, Russia's largest technology company. After the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, Yandex sold its Russian business, and the remaining international operations were restructured as Nebius, which re-listed on Nasdaq and completely transformed into a company focused on global AI infrastructure.
它做的事是：为全球最大的AI公司提供高性能GPU算力基础设施。
What it does is: provide high-performance GPU computing infrastructure for the world's largest AI companies.
微软、Meta需要跑AI模型，需要大量Nvidia GPU——但自建数据中心速度太慢，Nebius提供的是现成的、已经部署了大量Nvidia Blackwell GPU的算力基础设施，按需出租。
Microsoft and Meta need to run AI models and require a large number of Nvidia GPUs—but building their own data centers is too slow. Nebius provides ready-made computing infrastructure with a large number of Nvidia Blackwell GPUs already deployed, available for lease on demand.
Nebius是垂直整合的AI云平台，提供自有的AI软件和硬件，包括服务器和机架，让客户可以在Nebius的软件栈上运行主流AI模型，购买算力代币进行AI work负载处理。
Nebius is a vertically integrated AI cloud platform providing its own AI software and hardware, including servers and racks, allowing customers to run mainstream AI models on Nebius's software stack and purchase compute tokens for AI workload processing.
这不是一个普通的云服务商。这是一个专门为AI时代重量级工作负载定制的全栈算力平台。
This is not an ordinary cloud service provider. This is a full-stack computing platform specifically customized for heavyweight workloads in the AI era.
英伟达、微软、Meta——三个最重要的名字同时押注
Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta—the three most important names betting simultaneously
这是整篇报告最值得单独说的部分：
This is the part of the entire report most worth highlighting individually:
英伟达向Nebius投资约$7亿，并给予Nebius优先获取最新、最强大GPU的权利，同时按每台约$20,000的折扣价格供货——在GPU供应极度紧缺的市场里，这是大多数竞争对手无法复制的成本优势。
Nvidia invested approximately $700 million in Nebius and granted Nebius the right of priority access to the latest and most powerful GPUs, while supplying them at a discount of approximately $20,000 per unit—in a market with extremely tight GPU supply, this is a cost advantage most competitors cannot replicate.
微软与Nebius签署了约$194亿的五年期AI基础设施协议，合同总额在签署当天超过了Nebius的整体市值。 消息公布后，股价单日暴涨约60%。
Microsoft signed an approximately $19.4 billion five-year AI infrastructure agreement with Nebius, with the total contract value exceeding Nebius's entire market capitalization on the day of signing. Following the announcement, the stock price surged about 60% in a single day.
Meta紧随其后，与Nebius签署了约$30亿的五年期合同，将Nebius纳入Meta的云合作伙伴网络，专门用于部署Meta的Nvidia GB300系统。
Meta followed closely, signing an approximately $3 billion five-year contract with Nebius and including Nebius in Meta's cloud partner network, specifically for the deployment of Meta's Nvidia GB300 systems.
英伟达投资并优先供货，微软与Meta各自签署多年期合同——这三个名字同时出现在同一家公司的股东与客户名单上，在AI基础设施赛道里，目前只有Nebius。
Nvidia investing and providing priority supply, with Microsoft and Meta each signing multi-year contracts—these three names simultaneously appearing on the shareholder and customer lists of the same company is something that currently only exists with Nebius in the AI infrastructure sector.
为什么2025年累计涨超过两倍
Why it rose more than twofold cumulatively in 2025
2025年，Nebius股价累计涨幅约200%，从52周低点约$18涨至历史高位约$141。
In 2025, Nebius's stock price saw a cumulative increase of approximately 200%, rising from a 52-week low of about $18 to an all-time high of about $141.
驱动力是两个里程碑式的合同：9月微软约$194亿合同公布，11月Meta约$29亿合同确认——每一次都是单日大幅跳涨，市场用真金白银重新给这个故事定价。
The driving forces were two milestone contracts: the announcement of the approximately $19.4 billion Microsoft contract in September, and the confirmation of the approximately $2.9 billion Meta contract in November—each resulted in a massive single-day jump as the market used real money to reprice the story.
为什么今天跌回约$74至$79
Why it fell back to approximately $74 to $79 today
三个压力同时出现：
Three pressures appeared simultaneously:
第一，Q4营收约$2.28亿，略低于分析师预期约$2.46亿，市场对执行能力产生短期疑虑。
First, Q4 revenue was approximately $228 million, slightly below the analyst expectation of approximately $246 million, creating short-term doubts about execution capabilities in the market.
第二，2026年全年营收指引约$34亿，部分分析师认为低于更激进的市场预期，引发情绪性抛售。
Second, the full-year 2026 revenue guidance is approximately $3.4 billion, which some analysts believe is lower than more aggressive market expectations, triggering emotional selling.
第三，公司宣布发行最多约2500万股新股的增发计划，稀释压力压制短期股价。
Third, the company announced a plan to issue up to approximately 25 million new shares, with dilution pressure suppressing the short-term stock price.
但约$220亿的合同积压没有改变。英伟达的投资与优先供货协议没有改变。公司2025年ARR超额完成指引约$2.5亿，并将2026年ARR目标设定在约$70亿至$90亿区间。
However, the approximately $22 billion contract backlog has not changed. The investment and priority supply agreement from Nvidia has not changed. The company over-delivered on its 2025 ARR guidance by about $250 million and has set the 2026 ARR target in the range of approximately $7 billion to $9 billion.
从约$141跌至约$74至$79，市场在惩罚的是一个略低于预期的单季数字，而不是整个商业逻辑的失败。
By falling from approximately $141 to approximately $74–$79, the market is punishing a single-quarter figure that was slightly below expectations, rather than a failure of the entire business logic.
微软约$194亿、Meta约$29亿、英伟达约$7亿直接投资并优先供货——三个全球最重要的科技公司用真金白银同时押注同一家公司。但股价从约$141腰斩至约$74至$79。2026年ARR目标约$70亿至$90亿，今天的市值只有约$200亿。这个赔率值不值得用小仓位参与？下半部分，我们会给出具体的分批建仓价位、三个阶段的止盈目标，以及哪些信号出现时需要立即离场。
Microsoft at approximately $19.4 billion, Meta at approximately $2.9 billion, and Nvidia at approximately $700 million in direct investment and priority supply—three of the world's most important tech companies are simultaneously betting real money on the same company. Yet the stock price has halved from approximately $141 to approximately $74–$79. With a 2026 ARR target of approximately $7 billion to $9 billion, the market cap today is only about $20 billion. Is this risk-reward worth participating in with a small position? In the second half, we will provide specific staggered entry price levels, three-stage take-profit targets, and signals that would require an immediate exit.
